Epic fail, I’ve always been more worried about severe wx with this look and stuck to it 
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Table setter for the next one right 
Gotta cut off to it's west, super touchy
NCSNOW
Member
Perfect weather outside. Sunny low to mid 50s. Breeze isnt out of hand. Mowed yard, pressure washed winter mud stains off sidewalk. Got 9 holes after work yesterday. 2 boston butts coming off smoker in 30 mins. Why yall root for 70+ air is beyond me.
Wedges 
50s here all the way down to @pcbjr with clouds/nice NE winds, rain at Hog. Dews in 30s here!
Next 4 days' fcast for us: mainly clear with lows 34-45; highs 58-73; DP 20s-30s here and 30s-40s Hog; Poss frost sun/Mon nites! #Can'tBeatinMar! Models were right!
This will help keep things dormant for awhile here and sure beats highs of 86-7!
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I’m getting scared that HLB blocking returns, if we keep trying to shove TPVs south we’re gonna get a wavebreak >> -NAO again later in the month, lines up with the MJO
In the mean time, stronger SE ridge on the EPS
In the mean time, stronger SE ridge on the EPS
With the MJO moving into phase 2/3 in about 10-12 days, it would certainly make sense to see the NAO go back negative. To get to that, we are gonna a see a great run of spring like weather....it would not shock me at all to see widespread 80s by next Friday and Saturday for the Carolinas then a run severe weather for a couple days after that.
Yep, MJO inside left side of COD now and progged to stay in cooler left side with lots of phase 1 days possibly coming. Phase 1 often chilly. Then if proceeds to 2-3, that’s often chilly, too. JB looking good. Still looking at only a 3-4 day torch early teens of March:
Sucks because we’re probably gonna start cranking out severe weather as we head deeper into met spring with those cooler MJO phases like last year
2 legitimate looks for severe weather 
EPS really likes the second with much more cape on ensembles
EPS really likes the second with much more cape on ensembles
Had some rain and 40 degrees earlier but it is beautiful now. 53 and sunny with a slight breeze. Got some ribs on the smoker now after baseball practice.
That 2nd look is much more threatening for us. The first really seems like it would favor areas to our west
Stormsfury
Member
Interesting explanation for this morning's non-liquid precipitation event..
Not technically sleet ... And this also occurred at the national weather service in Charleston... They could hear it but not really see it.
Not technically sleet ... And this also occurred at the national weather service in Charleston... They could hear it but not really see it.
For the 4th year in a row (2018-21), the coldest Arctic temps are in March. And 2017 was late in Feb.
Per below, temp has dropped very sharply to 244 K. Also, note that Arctic normals are still quite cold with them only 1.5K above THE coldest norm of 242.5 K on Feb 25.
So, the temp dropped to normal for the first time since.....ready for this......August!! See next image showing 2020:
Now, we’ll see if it can drop into BN. Last time appreciably BN way back in early March of 20!
This cold Arctic illustrates well why despite the sun getting higher and higher that we can still get quite cold in March if the air were to shoot down from the Arctic fast enough.
Per below, temp has dropped very sharply to 244 K. Also, note that Arctic normals are still quite cold with them only 1.5K above THE coldest norm of 242.5 K on Feb 25.
So, the temp dropped to normal for the first time since.....ready for this......August!! See next image showing 2020:
Now, we’ll see if it can drop into BN. Last time appreciably BN way back in early March of 20!
This cold Arctic illustrates well why despite the sun getting higher and higher that we can still get quite cold in March if the air were to shoot down from the Arctic fast enough.
This is a look that can get ugly wrt severe, im
Willing to bet the GFS is to progressive and the v16 has a better idea
Willing to bet the GFS is to progressive and the v16 has a better idea
If the wind stays down upper 20s no problem
Poor thing 
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Pls let it snow
That SER is a monster lol, even with a stronger ridge in the west on top the cutoff the southeast ridge is stronger on the icon 
That SER will give the SE a 3-4 day torchy period which I’m sure you’ll absolutely love but then its destiny is to give up the ghost to the MJO and a big Arctic high/new batch of extremely cold air (with cross polar element) that will likely first infiltrate NW Canada March 13
before overtaking much of W and C Canada 3/15. If not overdone due to cold bias, this will bring lows as cold as -40s and highs as cold as -30s in parts of N Canada. I’ll be watching like a hawk as Bastardi has been onto this idea of a US cold invasion for much of this week.
Keep in mind that the Arctic north of 80N has just reached its coldest in a year!
If y’all thought St Patrick’s day was going to be a walk in the park in shorts, you may want to reassess that idea.
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LickWx
Member
Doesn’t matter how cold the Arctic is, doesn’t translate to us getting the coldest . Especially not in mid March ! Keep in mind average in the upper south in mid March is around 64.... it would take a deviation of 24 degrees just to get a 40 degree high ! 32 to even dream of an ice day which mind you has happened in March only a handful of times last 130 years( 5-7 for raleigh if I’m not mistaken ). I don’t see what your seeing man but don’t count on any bone shattering cold because it just ain’t happening whether it gets below normal or not! Plus your average high is like 72 mid March ? 70? 20 degrees below avg is barely enough for a high of 50! Just saying but I don’t see how the Arctic being the coldest means much for us .
I didn’t say anything about it potentially giving us the coldest of the season. But I am saying it has the potential to get us well below normal. A 50 degree high down here around 3/17 or so would be quite noteworthy and could even give me and @pcbjr fezzes.
LickWx
Member
That’s fair enough but again 50 is already pushing the envelope for how cold you can get really without cloud cover and precip to cool you more . Pretty much coldest possible airmass for you.
More dumpage out west ? more in line with its ensemble now 
Agreed for most part. More realistically, highs well into the 50s with full sun is what I’d hope for here, along with a couple of nights with possible freezes or at least solid frosts. Yes a high right at 50 with full sunshine would be really pushing it on or near 3/17 down here and would require one of the coldest air masses so late in the season.
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Might be the biggest R-t-R change I’ve ever seen lol, got hot pink popping up near the GLs 
Hot off the press: Because so few members have been tossing the 18Z recently, the very generous Southern Wx staff has just granted a special toss option for the 0Z for one day only! So, we toss. Clearly Goofy got hold of some crack this evening.
Meanwhile, enjoying a great chilly weekend with enjoyable “strolling”.
Meanwhile, enjoying a great chilly weekend with enjoyable “strolling”.
Upcoming thaw will be nice before we go back to below average soon
It does have one but it looks like the GEFS is struggling to build heights in the east due to the first shortwave 
Obviously the details will need to be ironed out, but I'm definitely liking the severe weather potential over the next 10 days.
Also, we can hopefully start to see the trees bud/bloom.
Euro looks like its gonna come in cooler (no wintry wx ofc)
It’s also the most aggressive model with the trough out of all models
It’s also the most aggressive model with the trough out of all models
Euro being the most aggressive is a understatement lol 