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Pattern Muddy March 2021

Another key piece I’m looking at is how modeling is handling the storm in a couple days from now ... how far north and west does that precip shield lay? And where is the storm located when the precip is over us ... let’s take the GFS and NAM for a second .. here are the models most recent runs 17C119E8-63A2-4277-BCE7-FD5C2C89C25A.jpegBDA5A2BA-BCDB-45F1-B024-52C59400EB89.jpeg68A11CC4-3E43-4E08-B7B3-0FC7807E14B4.jpeg

Here I put 2 frames of the Gfs and only 1 of the NAM ..I think you can clearly see why.. notice how much the Gfs doesn’t have a clue (also look at where the storm is located off the coast and where that precip makes it) and the NAM has precip FARRR north and west of the Gfs ... this could play into our downstream big dog
 
SD said:
I'll see you Friday evening when we are still hoping lol. It's going to be a painful week a less sheared wave is slower which means a better opportunity to phase. But the icon and gfs seemed a little faster with pushing the ridge to our west east.
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Yeah I mean what else should we expect from this winter, I fully expect a few big dogs runs Wed to get us all super hyped (even though we swear we wont cause we know its -------- even though we really are ), followed by a huge NW trend to warm smashing those hopes we denied were hyped, only to be NAMed Friday morning with a big dog dragging us back in.......to still eventually end up with 35 and rain...
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Another key piece I’m looking at is how modeling is handling the storm in a couple days from now ... how far north and west does that precip shield lay? And where is the storm located when the precip is over us ... let’s take the GFS and NAM for a second .. here are the models most recent runs View attachment 77402View attachment 77403View attachment 77404

Here I put 2 frames of the Gfs and only 1 of the NAM ..I think you can clearly see why.. notice how much the Gfs doesn’t have a clue (also look at where the storm is located off the coast and where that precip makes it) and the NAM has precip FARRR north and west of the Gfs ... this could play into our downstream big dog
Click to expand...
Yeah... this is something we often see with the globals and it just doesn’t correct until it’s in the short range. It always seems with coastal lows, the precip shield ends up much more expansive to the north and west than what globals are showing.
 
ATLwxfan said:
That’s the content I’m here for. I mean I tell my patients, this shot might help might not.


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Basically as a whole the background state and northern hemisphere wants to be a zonal flow. The recent wave breaks in the north atlantic are helping to induce a -nao structure. This will keep the northeast cold and dry while giving the SE a chance at snow over the weekend.
 
SD said:
Basically as a whole the background state and northern hemisphere wants to be a zonal flow. The recent wave breaks in the north atlantic are helping to induce a -nao structure. This will keep the northeast cold and dry while giving the SE a chance at snow over the weekend.
Click to expand...
Dream scenario right there
 
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