tennessee storm
Member
Whoa . Look out .
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Pattern Muddy March 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Liking to see it but believing the Euro is likely overdone here. However, the MJO suggests it isn't far fetched either.
Yeah I agree, what I think is more likely tho is that given the vortex to our NE, could see some CAD, even the warmer models hint at CAD
Yeah the EPS is less aggressive then it’s op 
it is however colder 
it is however colder 
Cold always finds a way to come Back per usual thats been the theme all winter long .. guess it’ll be the same for spring too
Positive PNA things doing positive PNA things with big HIGH pressure sustems out of the north .. did someone say CAD cold ?
26.2 here this morning. I was not expecting it to drop that low!
Crazy that there are eps members with highs near or below freezing after 3/14. Still a solid 40 degree spread between min and max member
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Doesn't look like it, only a couple days at freezing
Amplitude of the ridge over AK and NW Canada is the key to getting the cold in the west. Weaker ridge is more western dumps and SE ridging response, so warm dry conditions with severe weather likely confined to the western parts of the SE. Stronger ridge more cold east with a weaker SE ridge but likely a better chance at a heavy rain event and potentially an severe weather event farther east. 
MichaelJ
Member
The chances that anyone sees wintry precip (outside the mountains) this month is slim and none, and Slim just got up out of his chair and headed for the exits. Let's just glide into a Spring pattern and be done with it.
Yup, truth hurts but that’s facts
06z EPS looked like it backed of the SE Canada vortex/EC trough, that run last night was probably to aggressive
Jessy89
Member
Yeah winter ended with flurries in NE Georgia yesterday. And I’ve already started to sneeze I did get down to 27 this morning though felt great. However I am hoping for hot weather in Florida to warm up the Gulf of Mexico for my trip to Destin April 5 through 9th. By the end of June early July I have a feeling everyone will want winter back happens Every year. Everyone looks forward to spring and summer then there ready for fall and winter half way through summer.
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Yeah those colder members almost have to be way overdone due to cold bias of Euro ens. There have been only two dates after March 9th with a 32 high as was noted: 3/17 and 3/24.
To clarify regarding the real potential of more cold during the last half of March, that is too late to expect anything near midwinter extremes. But it isn’t too late at all to have well BN yielding hard freezes in the Raleigh and Atlanta areas as well as in much of the rest of the way inland SE.
The 6Z Goofy has something similar to 0Z (big western dump) and which again strongly disagrees with the less unreliable ens mean. I’ve been told the special toss option has been extended to 6Z Goofy because it is the very next run meaning the crack hasn’t yet had a chance to wear off. So, again we toss!
Edit: Pretty impressively cold 37 here this morning. Even colder is expected tonight and maybe also tomorrow night along with highs likely in the 62-65 range, which is BN especially for sunny days. Normal high is now 69. We may not get above that til Thursday though model cold biases tell me that could happen on Wednesday.
Dewpoints are now well down into the 30s and will likely get down into the 20s by this afternoon.
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LickWx
Member
First freeze of the month so far with 29 this morning .
ICON looks like last nights euro 
NCHighCountryWX
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Very low dew points upcoming Sunday afternoon in North Carolina around 8 degrees
A no sweat zone
A no sweat zone
Wow! I imagine the fire danger this afternoon must be pretty high, despite the wet winter, with such low dewpoints and mainly sunny, breezy conditions.
We got to 31 here
Bastardi Saturday Summary: skip to 9:39 for the cold late March outlook (unless you want to first hear him babble about his cat, hear his daughter call in, and hear him brag about getting the winter right):
He talks about -EPO on the way in tandem with MJO that is favorable for colder than normal.
My comments: But to be fair we don’t have the -AO along with periods of +PNA that we had nearly all winter. So, it looks to be a battle of uncertainty. Regardless, I’m hopeful for the SE to at least avoid any long lasting torch in the last half of March and if fortunate to get some more BN stretches like we’re now having.
WeatherBELL Live Stream
www.weatherbell.com
He talks about -EPO on the way in tandem with MJO that is favorable for colder than normal.
My comments: But to be fair we don’t have the -AO along with periods of +PNA that we had nearly all winter. So, it looks to be a battle of uncertainty. Regardless, I’m hopeful for the SE to at least avoid any long lasting torch in the last half of March and if fortunate to get some more BN stretches like we’re now having.
Gfs looks good for next weekend pretty warm and rain looks fairly light
Yeah, we're quickly moving towards that time of year where below normal temps means nice weather; especially when we get into April. At that point nightly frost would still provide highs in the 60s; above normal temps could provide those first warm/humid days that need AC. My real hope is to see below temps for May; the alternative could be an early season heat wave.
olhausen
Member
Got down to 25.3 here. about 5 degrees below forecast I believe.
This a snow look ??
NCSNOW
Member
LOL. No workout tips or new power pudding recipes. I learned of JB off an old AM station wsjs in the early 90s. He would come on live and give accuweather forecast. We had football fields to take care of and get ready for friday nights. The tv mets where horrendous along with the noaa radio. Hed get 5 to 7 days out and was a God send. We didnt have access to the avn model or eta. Pre internet days. Man he could ramble on any and everything when weather was 90/70 with 15% pop up. Which is 6 months out of the year
BuT mArCh UlLs MaKe ThErE oWn SnOw 
Oh fun look for sure.. 300+ hours out and that strong of an ULL? Could be some fun down the road for some people wanting surprise late season winter weather .. thanks for sharing
BufordWX
Member
I’m gonna enjoy next week. Warm and breezy. Gonna feel good. Even a chance of storms by the end of the week. Sounds like Spring to me.
And y'all thought wedgies were a cruel school prank.
LickWx
Member
Greensboro doesn’t even average a single daily average of 90 let alone a month though lol. Or 6 months !
Well to be fair that’s very far out and unlikely, not only that but that’s approaching later March when climo wise it gets much harder to get snow
The 12Z GEFS took a step in the direction of an on crack 0Z/6Z Goofy initial western dump. Hope this doesn’t happen but I’d be able to handle it without a nervous breakdown as this is only wx and I enjoy following it, whatever my preference.
getting Sunday back 
