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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

This event unfortunately isn't going to happen for most in the SE it doesn't look like.


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

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And we definitely need the rain.
 
yuck ....06z gefs
2d9a2f09fc30ebdc2d45a1b7fc556804.jpg


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I think that it is safe to say, the models don't know anything of what is going on. They are flying all over the place as new data comes in like a dog does in a tennis court. They are settling a bit, but once more, 12Z should have something new to offer to the game. Who knows what the difference will be, but I think we will either see no energy at all and a focus on the new wave, or no new wave and more focus on the original second system.
 
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

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And if there is a storm, it will be all rain for AL/GA.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

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Wouldn't the first low up in the lakes have to be stronger as well? It looks like each run weakens it, and in return allows the unwanted wave to develop and move north of us, leaving no room for the original second wave to develop.
 
If you look at hr 84 on the 06z GFS that low sitting over western AR...that low has a warm front, you can see rain showers breaking out. At first there's a stationary front there but it becomes a warm front. That's one reason why it's warm. For it to be colder, that stationary front needs to be further south.

Another reason why it's warm, that surface high isn't down far enough to provide the colder air. Need to see that further south.

Last night on the 0z mean spread it showed another wave. The 06z GFS has as the 2nd wave but it just fizzles out.



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SD said:
You've got to know when to hold 'em Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away And know when to run
You never count your money When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for counting When the dealin's done

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Well right now we have a 6 of clubs and a 7 of clubs in the hole.... do we want to stay in and see a flop?
 
According to today's indices, the +PNA spike is very close to the same time as the -AO peak.
 
There is not going to be a third wave here. Or better put, that so called third wave is going to be light snow in Tennessee or nothing. What this storm relied on was redevelopment with help from a gulf shortwave and after the second wave sped up, there isn't another gulf shortwave to help the last wave.

Unless this moves back to 2/10, I'm declaring this one over. I've tried to be optimistic for at least the upper south but the new idea is too fast and too far north.
 
The storm has sped up by 24 hours since the Thursday snowy runs on the latest GFS...the energy works out great on the 6z, there's just not enough cold. The ridging is also where we want it. Truly a shame this thing moves so fast, that's what we get from a high sliding west to east. I still think the latest GFS is too fast with the wave and the EPS offers some hope with a handful of members lagging back...but yeah, this is trending away from NC too.'


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GeorgiaGirl said:
There is not going to be a third wave here. Or better put, that so called third wave is going to be light snow in Tennessee or nothing. What this storm relied on was redevelopment with help from a gulf shortwave and after the second wave sped up, there isn't another gulf shortwave to help the last wave.

Unless this moves back to 2/10, I'm declaring this one over. I've tried to be optimistic for at least the upper south but the new idea is too fast and too far north.
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It was just two runs of the same data cycle. I wouldn't expect the same situation by tomorrow's 6Z runs at all. Things overall aren't looking the best, but until I see 8 or more runs in a row of a cutter, or a different solution I wouldn't be set on anything,
 
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