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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

bouncycorn said:
I don't think some of us are understanding what the model is throwing out rn. It shows a secondary low undergoing some sort of de novo cyclogenesis and going ots because the s/w takes forever to actually shoot southeast. The S/W energy has 0 interaction with the front as of 117 hrs. This is the first run of any model to show that.
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I realized what I was doing. I misjudged my third straight GFS run (but I wasn't talking as much with the others). This is the first run that has shown this and we had another 0z run have a big change.
 
This will be out to sea as expected, can't have the energy that far NW and allow it to hang back that long. Needs to dig early. The ridge is too far east by the time it digs, thus the shortwave never moved toward a neutral-positive look.


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IDK if we should trust this run in particular. The GFS has a known tendency to have some runs that really slow everything down in the first frames (hence last system exactly 120 hours out, showed the western energy too slow and the ridge destroying it). Same issue may be happening here, especially since none of the GEFS members, EPS members, ECMWF, cmc, JMA, FIM, NAM, DGEX, or NAVGEM show this.
 
What even is the GFS doing with that energy? Something looks wrong. Can those high pieces of energy be at that sharp of an angle north of Virginia Beach?
gfs_z500_vort_us_21.png
 
Jon said:
This will be out to sea as expected, can't have the energy that far NW and allow it to hang back that long. Needs to dig early. The ridge is too far east by the time it digs, thus the shortwave never moved toward a neutral-positive look.


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The low is OTS because the energy never consolidates for the surface low to form early. It turns into, really, two s/w's. The first one initiates the low from the stationary frontal boundary and the second one just kinda leads from behind and can't interact with much (except a little nudge/inverted trough once it reaches the SE and finally semi-consolidates)
 
cd2play said:
Geeze, if the models keep trending warmer, by the time Thursday gets here we might actually be talking about severe storms!
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There's no trend warmer, colder, wetter, dryer. Trends happen aloft which affect those features. When you have a different solution that trends towards one that would be colder but each is consecutive warmer, you assume it'll finally be warmer. But the big picture is totally different here, regardless of surface temperature "trends".
 
Yeah, I'm not sure about this run.

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Call it! T O D, 23:20! Do not resuscitate ! :(
 
We should be able to diagnose this problem by now. It shows up with every system (severe, winter, rain, hurricane, etc) in some model at some point between 84-120 hours out. There is some sort of feedback error that causes energy to lag in the entire northern hemisphere in some runs and this one is included.
 
Though I do admit that there is a clear trend in the former several runs to bring the energy further NW/slower. This run, HOWEVER, featured almost every NH system slowing down and backing west. Not buying that!
 
bouncycorn said:
We should be able to diagnose this problem by now. It shows up with every system (severe, winter, rain, hurricane, etc) in some model at some point between 84-120 hours out. There is some sort of feedback error that causes energy to lag in the entire northern hemisphere in some runs and this one is included.
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Yeah, don't see how anything can lag in a flow that's this fast! Y'all bring it home with the euro!
 
Unless the GEFS has some members that show something like this, I'd toss this run. I'm still worried about a warm solution but this looked weird from 84-90 and on.
 
The 0z NAM 12km has something interesting, that low sitting down there over TX with more moisture than the 0z GFS. Will the disturbance to the north start to interact with the low? Can't say for sure since obviously the NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. With the look at 84 hrs the interaction could take place of where I showed in my last video. The low becoming more consolidated and gaining momentum as it pushes east of Louisiana.


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Somebody got NAM'd! Somebody say how bad the gefs is, so I can sleep soundly!
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 0z NAM 12km has something interesting, that low sitting down there over TX with more moisture than the 0z GFS. Will the disturbance to the north start to interact with the low? Can't say for sure since obviously the NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. With the look at 84 hrs the interaction could take place of where I showed in my last video. The low becoming more consolidated and gaining momentum as it pushes east of Louisiana.


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The GFS has that low too.


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