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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

This is the new 0z GEFS mean...very interesting! I do believe that the 0z OP run is corrupt.

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Can someone post the 0z GEFS surface members?

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If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

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and they are both way too warm . time is running out pretty fast

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I don't really see how there is going to be two waves, the solution itself here is helped by redevelopment with a gulf s/w. No gulf s/w to help with redevelopment=light snow or nothing. I still don't think the 0z GFS is going to be the solution or something similar but I think it's very possible that this won't be a storm for us if there is one.

You know what the 12z Euro might have picked up on? The main system being too fast for anything at all in the southeast even if something sparks. As one thing I noticed was it placed a low off the SE coast faster than the other models did.
 
I'll give tomorrow to see how things pan out, but of oz tomorrow night is a fail then I'm done with this one. Charlie is right, this looks like a MA special if things continue the way it's going
 
So usually models trend nw and warmer as we get close. can't wait for thunder.
 
Storm5 said:
00z euro has a system ......that's too warm . not even close
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All it would take is the storm to slow down 6 hours and a large majority of the SE would be all snow. This is far from over IMO. Models aren't even sure about the evolution of the HP not to mention the shortwave timing...
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850s 6 hours later
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Jon said:
All it would take is the storm to slow down 6 hours and a large majority of the SE would be all snow. This is far from over IMO. Models aren't even sure about the evolution of the HP not to mention the shortwave timing...
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850s 6 hours later
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we are under 120 hours now and watching the ensembles shift north at the point isn't encouraging at all. The trough axis isn't in a great spot. sure we keep getting runs that pull it back further west . But in general it's too far east. Now with that said your area and many others in NC could easily do well in this setup . But for us back to the west the trough placement verbatim is crap

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Storm5 said:
never said it was over but we are under 120 hours now and watching the ensembles shift north at the point isn't encouraging at all. The trough axis isn't in a great spot. sure we keep getting runs that pull it back further west . But in general it's too far east. Now with that said your area and many others in NC could easily do well in this setup . But for us back to the west the trough placement verbatim is crap

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Yeah I guess it's important to note which area each of us are rooting for/talking about. NC has a decent shot, I don't want to give anyone's hopes up but I think that's pretty much the only state in the game for this one outside of far northern county gulf states, maybe....and of course SW SC if NC scores. It would be a miracle to get this to be an NC event.


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Jon said:
Yeah I guess it's important to note which area each of us are rooting for/talking about. NC has a decent shot, I don't want to give anyone's hopes up but I think that's pretty much the only state in the game for this one outside of far northern county gulf states, maybe....and of course SW SC if NC scores. It would be a miracle to get this to be an NC event.


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that's a good point . can't speak for anyone else but I often make blanket statements when in reality I'm talking about my area. I hope yall score, we have alot of NC members that are very interested in this system.

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Storm5 said:
00z euro has a system ......that's too warm . not even close
8cd10bd576494cd726d47628d0e717a5.jpg
e9588bce7f217c2e0cb83c265d8c75e3.jpg


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The Euro is a lot closer for my area. Heck a couple days ago it did not even have a system. I understand that there are not many Tn posters at all but we are part of the south.:D
 
Impressive mean! There looks like a storm is guaranteed for someone...looks like a D.C. Special for now but wow. This run was also colder on the means, snowfall for nc also went up.
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