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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

metwannabe said:
I see you did show the vorticity map in the last minute, sorry didn't watch all the way through before.... anyway it's not a phase, the upper level energy digging helps develop the surface lp off the coast no phase. Either way keep at it, I admire you're optimism

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Yeah it's not technically a phase. We understand what he's saying though because he shows it. It's just an interaction. The upper energy disturbs (hence disturbance) the horizontal vorticity fields atop the remnant front from the initial system and it forms a surface low, which in turn strengthens the upper low which causes the surface low to strengthen rather quickly.

But other than terminology your video is pretty good!


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If everything is pushed back west (that's what it looks like so far), it may mean that the interaction occurs further Northwest (or further west) because the s/w has more time to dig.
 
honestly not sure how I feel yet on this one....not worried about a cutter but I'm worried about a full on cave to a CMC like solution. Think this is going to come earlier...
 
The ridge is slightly less taller at 84 than 18z.

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Arcc said:
Unless it has really improved, the FIM is nothing more than an overamped buttkisser of the GFS.

It belongs with the JMA.
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I thought the GFS buttkisser, was the Para-GFS , and the pioneer model! GFS holding steady early in the run, let's hope for colder, to stop this from being a NC only event! :(
 
bouncycorn said:
If everything is pushed back west (that's what it looks like so far), it may mean that the interaction occurs further Northwest (or further west) because the s/w has more time to dig.
Click to expand...

It may be the opposite, ridge may build and digging will be too late, out to sea solution would be my guess this run so far at 90hrs. Energy is way too far north.


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The system may change quite a bit on this run. The initial S/W is stronger in the pacnw AND there is a lot more separation. We may see two things.

1. The frontal boundary dissipates and anti-frontogenesis occurs before the low even makes it
2. the s/w will be deeper and thus initiate a low earlier and probably a little further south.
 
I think this just caved to the CMC. Hopefully, I am wrong but what I'm seeing doesn't look great.

EDIT: I need to not give analysis when I'm partially distracted!
 
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I'm not meaning recent CMC's, I've seen previous CMC's that had a solution very similar to what we're seeing here. Warm, all rain south of KY/VA.
 
The low you're seeing at 102 is something new...our disturbance is further back over WY at 102

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The disturbance on the 9th actually is a pretty decent storm for VA ahead of the main shortwave.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
And there it is...full on to the CMC cave. This likely also came way too fast.

Maybe it changes on the next run but this is a bad trend.
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LOL, nothing like the CMC. The system you see early is a mew system, not the one we are after. CMC says "what energy?", GFS has it. Watch the CMC show a blizzard now.
 
I don't think some of us are understanding what the model is throwing out rn. It shows a secondary low undergoing some sort of de novo cyclogenesis and going ots because the s/w takes forever to actually shoot southeast. The S/W energy has 0 interaction with the front as of 117 hrs. This is the first run of any model to show that.
 
Okay I had this one misjudged....there's another wave? huh? This run looks nothing like the previous ones we've seen.
 
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