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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

whatalife

whatalife

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I think we are close enough to this event to start a thread on it. Hopefully it wasn't jinxed by a sled picture a few moments ago. LOL!


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Since the thread was made, here is my newest video. This is looking more and more like a phase with that weak disturbance and a low poping up on the frontal boundary.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
Since the thread was made, here is my newest video. This is looking more and more like a phase with that weak disturbance and a low poping up on the frontal boundary.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

With all due respect where are you seeing a phase? Look at the H5 maps, there isn't a phase but enough separation from the first s/w as SD and others have mentioned to allow this to dig and pop that lp... if you want to suggest a phase you need to show that on the 500mb vorticity map not a surface map. But I digress...

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Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

cd0b5a0066677e4ae2e82da3fd6479af.jpg

894a5ff5f11bd53d309ad0e3a295a96c.jpg

91e720828da2551c51368c63f292e057.jpg

5880e5beffd65eb6a274e7dcb20656da.jpg

487fd89c46b344aa3583791ed64dc2f4.jpg


It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.
 
Jon said:
Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

cd0b5a0066677e4ae2e82da3fd6479af.jpg

894a5ff5f11bd53d309ad0e3a295a96c.jpg

91e720828da2551c51368c63f292e057.jpg

5880e5beffd65eb6a274e7dcb20656da.jpg

487fd89c46b344aa3583791ed64dc2f4.jpg


It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.
Click to expand...
Cool! But any model that has GFS anything in it, should be interesting!
 
metwannabe said:
With all due respect where are you seeing a phase? Look at the H5 maps, there isn't a phase but enough separation from the first s/w as SD and others have mentioned to allow this to dig and pop that lp... if you want to suggest a phase you need to show that on the 500mb vorticity map not a surface map. But I digress...

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Click to expand...
I did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.

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Click to expand...
I see you did show the vorticity map in the last minute, sorry didn't watch all the way through before.... anyway it's not a phase, the upper level energy digging helps develop the surface lp off the coast no phase. Either way keep at it, I admire you're optimism

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Jon said:
Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

cd0b5a0066677e4ae2e82da3fd6479af.jpg

894a5ff5f11bd53d309ad0e3a295a96c.jpg

91e720828da2551c51368c63f292e057.jpg

5880e5beffd65eb6a274e7dcb20656da.jpg

487fd89c46b344aa3583791ed64dc2f4.jpg


It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.
Click to expand...
Are those FDA approved? LOL
 
GFS is much better in La Nina years b/c of it's natural bias to speed systems up. ECMWF Is better in El NIno years.
 
Due to the thread being made, the 00z GFS is going to look horrible.

BUT, when the last Winter Storm thread was made, the first model run looked horrible but it eventually worked out for some
 
RollTide18 said:
Due to the thread being made, the 00z GFS is going to look horrible.

BUT, when the last Winter Storm thread was made, the first model run looked horrible but it eventually worked out for some
Click to expand...

HAHA! It was going to happen anyway b/c ATLwxfan thought it would be a good idea to show his picture of the new sled he bought for the last event. Let's just say that didn't workout so well


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I wanted to do one more video before the 0z GFS rolls out. In the video, I discuss of what I want to see on the 0z runs and future runs.

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metwannabe said:
I see you did show the vorticity map in the last minute, sorry didn't watch all the way through before.... anyway it's not a phase, the upper level energy digging helps develop the surface lp off the coast no phase. Either way keep at it, I admire you're optimism

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Click to expand...

Yeah it's not technically a phase. We understand what he's saying though because he shows it. It's just an interaction. The upper energy disturbs (hence disturbance) the horizontal vorticity fields atop the remnant front from the initial system and it forms a surface low, which in turn strengthens the upper low which causes the surface low to strengthen rather quickly.

But other than terminology your video is pretty good!


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Through 69 hours, many of the trends seen over the last several runs continue to enhance.
 
If everything is pushed back west (that's what it looks like so far), it may mean that the interaction occurs further Northwest (or further west) because the s/w has more time to dig.
 
honestly not sure how I feel yet on this one....not worried about a cutter but I'm worried about a full on cave to a CMC like solution. Think this is going to come earlier...
 
The ridge is slightly less taller at 84 than 18z.

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Arcc said:
Unless it has really improved, the FIM is nothing more than an overamped buttkisser of the GFS.

It belongs with the JMA.
Click to expand...
I thought the GFS buttkisser, was the Para-GFS , and the pioneer model! GFS holding steady early in the run, let's hope for colder, to stop this from being a NC only event! :(
 
bouncycorn said:
If everything is pushed back west (that's what it looks like so far), it may mean that the interaction occurs further Northwest (or further west) because the s/w has more time to dig.
Click to expand...

It may be the opposite, ridge may build and digging will be too late, out to sea solution would be my guess this run so far at 90hrs. Energy is way too far north.


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The system may change quite a bit on this run. The initial S/W is stronger in the pacnw AND there is a lot more separation. We may see two things.

1. The frontal boundary dissipates and anti-frontogenesis occurs before the low even makes it
2. the s/w will be deeper and thus initiate a low earlier and probably a little further south.
 
I think this just caved to the CMC. Hopefully, I am wrong but what I'm seeing doesn't look great.

EDIT: I need to not give analysis when I'm partially distracted!
 
Last edited:
I'm not meaning recent CMC's, I've seen previous CMC's that had a solution very similar to what we're seeing here. Warm, all rain south of KY/VA.
 
The low you're seeing at 102 is something new...our disturbance is further back over WY at 102

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The disturbance on the 9th actually is a pretty decent storm for VA ahead of the main shortwave.


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GeorgiaGirl said:
And there it is...full on to the CMC cave. This likely also came way too fast.

Maybe it changes on the next run but this is a bad trend.
Click to expand...
LOL, nothing like the CMC. The system you see early is a mew system, not the one we are after. CMC says "what energy?", GFS has it. Watch the CMC show a blizzard now.
 
I don't think some of us are understanding what the model is throwing out rn. It shows a secondary low undergoing some sort of de novo cyclogenesis and going ots because the s/w takes forever to actually shoot southeast. The S/W energy has 0 interaction with the front as of 117 hrs. This is the first run of any model to show that.
 
Okay I had this one misjudged....there's another wave? huh? This run looks nothing like the previous ones we've seen.
 
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