Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

[whatalife]

I think we are close enough to this event to start a thread on it. Hopefully it wasn't jinxed by a sled picture a few moments ago. LOL!


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[ForsythSnow]

You didn't. Lol, you will be on the boundary of the greatest snow.

 

[SnowHusky]

Since the thread was made, here is my newest video. This is looking more and more like a phase with that weak disturbance and a low poping up on the frontal boundary.

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[Metwannabe]

Since the thread was made, here is my newest video. This is looking more and more like a phase with that weak disturbance and a low poping up on the frontal boundary.

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With all due respect where are you seeing a phase? Look at the H5 maps, there isn't a phase but enough separation from the first s/w as SD and others have mentioned to allow this to dig and pop that lp... if you want to suggest a phase you need to show that on the 500mb vorticity map not a surface map. But I digress...

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[Jon]

Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.

 

[Tarheel1]

Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.

Cool! But any model that has GFS anything in it, should be interesting!

 

[ForsythSnow]

LOL! Rain

Rain for all. All south of I-40! Need the storm to dig further and further west or most won't get any wintry precip.

 

[SnowHusky]

With all due respect where are you seeing a phase? Look at the H5 maps, there isn't a phase but enough separation from the first s/w as SD and others have mentioned to allow this to dig and pop that lp... if you want to suggest a phase you need to show that on the 500mb vorticity map not a surface map. But I digress...

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I did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.

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[accu35]

 

[Metwannabe]

I did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.

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I see you did show the vorticity map in the last minute, sorry didn't watch all the way through before.... anyway it's not a phase, the upper level energy digging helps develop the surface lp off the coast no phase. Either way keep at it, I admire you're optimism

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[pcbjr]

Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z

It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.

Are those FDA approved? LOL

 

[bouncycorn]

GFS is much better in La Nina years b/c of it's natural bias to speed systems up. ECMWF Is better in El NIno years.

 

[RollTide18]

Due to the thread being made, the 00z GFS is going to look horrible.

BUT, when the last Winter Storm thread was made, the first model run looked horrible but it eventually worked out for some

 

[whatalife]

Due to the thread being made, the 00z GFS is going to look horrible.

BUT, when the last Winter Storm thread was made, the first model run looked horrible but it eventually worked out for some

HAHA! It was going to happen anyway b/c ATLwxfan thought it would be a good idea to show his picture of the new sled he bought for the last event. Let's just say that didn't workout so well


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[Arcc]

Unless it has really improved, the FIM is nothing more than an overamped buttkisser of the GFS.

It belongs with the JMA.

 

[pcbjr]

It belongs with the JMA.

You mean this one?: Jamstec:

 

[whatalife]

You mean this one?: Jamstec:

SMH!


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[pcbjr]

SMH!


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been doin' that all winter (unless you mean "some minor hope" )

 

[SnowHusky]

I wanted to do one more video before the 0z GFS rolls out. In the video, I discuss of what I want to see on the 0z runs and future runs.

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[Arcc]

You mean this one?: Jamstec:

No, the Japanese model.