whatalife
Moderator
I think we are close enough to this event to start a thread on it. Hopefully it wasn't jinxed by a sled picture a few moments ago. LOL!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Since the thread was made, here is my newest video. This is looking more and more like a phase with that weak disturbance and a low poping up on the frontal boundary.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Cool! But any model that has GFS anything in it, should be interesting!Bored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z
It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.
Rain for all. All south of I-40! Need the storm to dig further and further west or most won't get any wintry precip.LOL! Rain
I did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.With all due respect where are you seeing a phase? Look at the H5 maps, there isn't a phase but enough separation from the first s/w as SD and others have mentioned to allow this to dig and pop that lp... if you want to suggest a phase you need to show that on the 500mb vorticity map not a surface map. But I digress...
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
I see you did show the vorticity map in the last minute, sorry didn't watch all the way through before.... anyway it's not a phase, the upper level energy digging helps develop the surface lp off the coast no phase. Either way keep at it, I admire you're optimismI did show the phase on the 500mb maps. The phase occurs at hr 138/144. The secondary low is off the SE coast at hr 120 and you can see the moisture from the weak disturbance come into the secondary low, forming it into one consolidated system at hr 132. Those two lows that you see at hrs 120 and 126 are along the frontal boundary. I maybe telling it wrong, if I'm not, then someone maybe able to explain it better.
Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Are those FDA approved? LOLBored so I dug around for other models that may be of use... the 15km FIM9 has our storm. I know, what the heck is FIM9? Well it's an experimental NOAA product that uses GFS physics. Google it for more info, it's a mouthful. Anyway, here's the 12z
It's interesting to see how positively tilted the ridge is, really allows that shortwave to dig and not get sheared out. Sweet spot is north, sure, but tons of moisture and the model just may have issues with ground temps over NC. Fun to look at, not sure if it adds anything substantial.
Due to the thread being made, the 00z GFS is going to look horrible.
BUT, when the last Winter Storm thread was made, the first model run looked horrible but it eventually worked out for some
been doin' that all winter (unless you mean "some minor hope" )SMH!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
No, the Japanese model.You mean this one?: Jamstec: