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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

bouncycorn said:
I don't think some of us are understanding what the model is throwing out rn. It shows a secondary low undergoing some sort of de novo cyclogenesis and going ots because the s/w takes forever to actually shoot southeast. The S/W energy has 0 interaction with the front as of 117 hrs. This is the first run of any model to show that.
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I realized what I was doing. I misjudged my third straight GFS run (but I wasn't talking as much with the others). This is the first run that has shown this and we had another 0z run have a big change.
 
This will be out to sea as expected, can't have the energy that far NW and allow it to hang back that long. Needs to dig early. The ridge is too far east by the time it digs, thus the shortwave never moved toward a neutral-positive look.


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IDK if we should trust this run in particular. The GFS has a known tendency to have some runs that really slow everything down in the first frames (hence last system exactly 120 hours out, showed the western energy too slow and the ridge destroying it). Same issue may be happening here, especially since none of the GEFS members, EPS members, ECMWF, cmc, JMA, FIM, NAM, DGEX, or NAVGEM show this.
 
What even is the GFS doing with that energy? Something looks wrong. Can those high pieces of energy be at that sharp of an angle north of Virginia Beach?
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Jon said:
This will be out to sea as expected, can't have the energy that far NW and allow it to hang back that long. Needs to dig early. The ridge is too far east by the time it digs, thus the shortwave never moved toward a neutral-positive look.


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The low is OTS because the energy never consolidates for the surface low to form early. It turns into, really, two s/w's. The first one initiates the low from the stationary frontal boundary and the second one just kinda leads from behind and can't interact with much (except a little nudge/inverted trough once it reaches the SE and finally semi-consolidates)
 
cd2play said:
Geeze, if the models keep trending warmer, by the time Thursday gets here we might actually be talking about severe storms!
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There's no trend warmer, colder, wetter, dryer. Trends happen aloft which affect those features. When you have a different solution that trends towards one that would be colder but each is consecutive warmer, you assume it'll finally be warmer. But the big picture is totally different here, regardless of surface temperature "trends".
 
Yeah, I'm not sure about this run.

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Call it! T O D, 23:20! Do not resuscitate ! :(
 
We should be able to diagnose this problem by now. It shows up with every system (severe, winter, rain, hurricane, etc) in some model at some point between 84-120 hours out. There is some sort of feedback error that causes energy to lag in the entire northern hemisphere in some runs and this one is included.
 
Though I do admit that there is a clear trend in the former several runs to bring the energy further NW/slower. This run, HOWEVER, featured almost every NH system slowing down and backing west. Not buying that!
 
bouncycorn said:
We should be able to diagnose this problem by now. It shows up with every system (severe, winter, rain, hurricane, etc) in some model at some point between 84-120 hours out. There is some sort of feedback error that causes energy to lag in the entire northern hemisphere in some runs and this one is included.
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Yeah, don't see how anything can lag in a flow that's this fast! Y'all bring it home with the euro!
 
Unless the GEFS has some members that show something like this, I'd toss this run. I'm still worried about a warm solution but this looked weird from 84-90 and on.
 
The 0z NAM 12km has something interesting, that low sitting down there over TX with more moisture than the 0z GFS. Will the disturbance to the north start to interact with the low? Can't say for sure since obviously the NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. With the look at 84 hrs the interaction could take place of where I showed in my last video. The low becoming more consolidated and gaining momentum as it pushes east of Louisiana.


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Somebody got NAM'd! Somebody say how bad the gefs is, so I can sleep soundly!
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 0z NAM 12km has something interesting, that low sitting down there over TX with more moisture than the 0z GFS. Will the disturbance to the north start to interact with the low? Can't say for sure since obviously the NAM only goes out to 84 hrs. With the look at 84 hrs the interaction could take place of where I showed in my last video. The low becoming more consolidated and gaining momentum as it pushes east of Louisiana.


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The GFS has that low too.


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This is the new 0z GEFS mean...very interesting! I do believe that the 0z OP run is corrupt.

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Can someone post the 0z GEFS surface members?

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If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

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and they are both way too warm . time is running out pretty fast

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I don't really see how there is going to be two waves, the solution itself here is helped by redevelopment with a gulf s/w. No gulf s/w to help with redevelopment=light snow or nothing. I still don't think the 0z GFS is going to be the solution or something similar but I think it's very possible that this won't be a storm for us if there is one.

You know what the 12z Euro might have picked up on? The main system being too fast for anything at all in the southeast even if something sparks. As one thing I noticed was it placed a low off the SE coast faster than the other models did.
 
I'll give tomorrow to see how things pan out, but of oz tomorrow night is a fail then I'm done with this one. Charlie is right, this looks like a MA special if things continue the way it's going
 
So usually models trend nw and warmer as we get close. can't wait for thunder.
 
Storm5 said:
00z euro has a system ......that's too warm . not even close
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All it would take is the storm to slow down 6 hours and a large majority of the SE would be all snow. This is far from over IMO. Models aren't even sure about the evolution of the HP not to mention the shortwave timing...
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850s 6 hours later
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Jon said:
All it would take is the storm to slow down 6 hours and a large majority of the SE would be all snow. This is far from over IMO. Models aren't even sure about the evolution of the HP not to mention the shortwave timing...
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850s 6 hours later
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we are under 120 hours now and watching the ensembles shift north at the point isn't encouraging at all. The trough axis isn't in a great spot. sure we keep getting runs that pull it back further west . But in general it's too far east. Now with that said your area and many others in NC could easily do well in this setup . But for us back to the west the trough placement verbatim is crap

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Storm5 said:
never said it was over but we are under 120 hours now and watching the ensembles shift north at the point isn't encouraging at all. The trough axis isn't in a great spot. sure we keep getting runs that pull it back further west . But in general it's too far east. Now with that said your area and many others in NC could easily do well in this setup . But for us back to the west the trough placement verbatim is crap

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Yeah I guess it's important to note which area each of us are rooting for/talking about. NC has a decent shot, I don't want to give anyone's hopes up but I think that's pretty much the only state in the game for this one outside of far northern county gulf states, maybe....and of course SW SC if NC scores. It would be a miracle to get this to be an NC event.


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Jon said:
Yeah I guess it's important to note which area each of us are rooting for/talking about. NC has a decent shot, I don't want to give anyone's hopes up but I think that's pretty much the only state in the game for this one outside of far northern county gulf states, maybe....and of course SW SC if NC scores. It would be a miracle to get this to be an NC event.


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that's a good point . can't speak for anyone else but I often make blanket statements when in reality I'm talking about my area. I hope yall score, we have alot of NC members that are very interested in this system.

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Storm5 said:
00z euro has a system ......that's too warm . not even close
8cd10bd576494cd726d47628d0e717a5.jpg
e9588bce7f217c2e0cb83c265d8c75e3.jpg


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The Euro is a lot closer for my area. Heck a couple days ago it did not even have a system. I understand that there are not many Tn posters at all but we are part of the south.:D
 
Impressive mean! There looks like a storm is guaranteed for someone...looks like a D.C. Special for now but wow. This run was also colder on the means, snowfall for nc also went up.
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