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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

ForsythSnow said:
It was just two runs of the same data cycle. I wouldn't expect the same situation by tomorrow's 6Z runs at all. Things overall aren't looking the best, but until I see 8 or more runs in a row of a cutter, or a different solution I wouldn't be set on anything,
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Its not really a cutter, its just too far north. A cutter for me is a system that goes to the Great Lakes.

Maybe we have another 0z run that has us going wait...what?
 
I've done plenty of analyzing, if I don't start to see what I want to see on future model suites, I'm putting this off the table. 12z GFS is just now rolling out.

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If you look at this small sleet we had this morning, which model predicted it? The HRRR maybe did, but not the GFS or anything else from what I know. That adds another tally against the models knowing what is going on. They said if it was possible, it would be ZR, not sleet. I think that it was mentioned that the upcoming +PNA may be skewing it, but I don't know if I would trust these model runs up to the day. Let's hope we get surprised.
 
I'll give it to 0z but what I was afraid of might be happening. The GFS being right on a system being there, but its cold was over modeled all along.
 
For what it's worth, the NAM is slower ejecting that energy out from the NW. Before, I've spoke on how we don't want it to hold back too long...that's true, but we also don't want it to start ejecting too soon either.

Here's the NAM valid 00z 2/9
K4AJVe4.gif


and the 06z GFS valid 00z 2/9
Ep4WOOv.gif
 
At 78 hours, 12z GFS is hanging back much more than the 6z...it appears it will be a better run and a later storm as long as everything goes to plan downstream. I like the look so far and it's falling in like with the NAM run I posted above.
 
The main energy is elongating by 87 hours, probably not going to be what we wanted but it's actually a good thing the GFS didn't hold onto the 6z result.
 
93 hours, energy remains flat along the ridge...energy is much stronger but just not digging...we want to see it digging by now
 
This is even faster now and I don't think we're going to see a third wave this time, if this is that fast and the final batch just dissipates this is both all rain even in most of KY/VA and the wrong dates for this system.
 
The third batch will come out but it looks weaker than the last run and there won't be a gulf s/w to help it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is even faster now and I don't think we're going to see a third wave this time, if this is that fast and the final batch just dissipates this is both all rain even in most of KY/VA and the wrong dates for this system.
Click to expand...
This run is much slower and hangs the energy out west, the energy never digs, and the ridge builds and the energy is never reflected on the surface pressure maps. This is much better than the 06z solution.
 
The 12z run of the GFS is pretty much the same as 06z. The low over AR is little further south. It needs to be closer to the Gulf coast.

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