Cary_Snow95
Member
I think the problem people have is you base most of your "analysis" off of surface maps. And that's just silly
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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10
- Thread starter whatalife
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're not flipping out at all, and you're more than welcome to express your opinion on something, we're just trying to clear up some confusion and discontinuities in your line of reasoning with well established meteorological principles.
whatalife
Moderator
I understand the need for some of the great discussion on this thread. Eric, Jon, Shane, Shawn, and Charlie have just unloaded a ton of good stuff to think on.
Don't we have a thread already started about how to look at the models and what to watch for?
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Don't we have a thread already started about how to look at the models and what to watch for?
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I don't think anyone is flipping out. It was just being stated that there is a close relationship between H5 and the sfc and you must have a better look at H5 to have a better look at the sfc.
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pcbjr
Member
...and there is some really good stuff from this AM in the Feb thread also!
whatalife
Moderator
Yes there is...Eric unloaded a ton of good stuff on the Feb thread for us to think about.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Thanks for the kind words everyone. If anyone wants to really want to see what meteorology is all about, I definitely suggest looking over this free PDF of Holton's Fourth Edition Dynamic Meteorology textbook. Really goes into the finer details on the actual physics that link various meteorological phenomena with the coupled ocean-atmosphere system, and many of these concepts and equations are applicable to multitude of situations, and should help you understand some of the nuts and bolts of what is ingested into the global weather and climate models...
http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/DCA_download/An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology.pdf
http://www.dca.ufcg.edu.br/DCA_download/An Introduction to Dynamic Meteorology.pdf
pcbjr
Member
You're doing great, Man! Thanks!!!
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I understand we're y'all are coming from but y'all make it sound like you just have to look at H5. Winter weather is also based off of things at the surface. I analyze past runs, other modeling, wind currents, placement of highs and lows and other factors.
Also, just because I don't show H5 maps in my video's doesn't mean that I don't look at them at all, I do look at them.
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Also, just because I don't show H5 maps in my video's doesn't mean that I don't look at them at all, I do look at them.
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pcbjr
Member
^
Half the time it can be thundering and lightening and dark at 2:00 PM and I can't predict whether or not it's gonna rain in 5 minutes ...
But one prediction I can make with 100% certainty - it ain't gonna snow in Gainesville FL this winter! H5 or otherwise ....
Half the time it can be thundering and lightening and dark at 2:00 PM and I can't predict whether or not it's gonna rain in 5 minutes ...
But one prediction I can make with 100% certainty - it ain't gonna snow in Gainesville FL this winter! H5 or otherwise ....
If I want to know whether or not there could be enough surface moisture to allow for significant precip in a nonmountainous area in the SE during winter, the direction of 500 mb flow will tell me a lot. For fun I will often look at 500 mb flow before looking at the surface. If I see, say, WNW 500 mb flow at Atlanta, I know right off the bat that the chances of the sfc map showing sig precip at that point in time at Atlanta is going to be extremely low. Even W flow is quite often too dry. However, if I see SW or even WSW flow, then I know there's a decent chance that significant precip is then or around then falling in the area. I've written about this in BB posts in the past. When I looked for major KATL wintry events by searching numerous old wx maps going back to the 1950's (when H5 maps were already available), I learned that I could just look at the H5 maps and search for WSW to SW flow (though with the rare closed H5 low I'm more cautious). If the flow is WSW to SW, I know to then look further at that period (sfc maps). If W to WNW flow, I then know I don't even need to look at the sfc.
If, say, there's WSW flow, I'll then need to look at the surface to see if there's favorable low level flow to allow for precip. If there's, say, a high to the W imparting a dry NW low level flow, then I can be pretty sure there's still going to be either no or very little precip. despite the rather favorable WSW 500 mb flow.
If, say, there's WSW flow, I'll then need to look at the surface to see if there's favorable low level flow to allow for precip. If there's, say, a high to the W imparting a dry NW low level flow, then I can be pretty sure there's still going to be either no or very little precip. despite the rather favorable WSW 500 mb flow.
pcbjr
Member
My clients in Atl all say that the good snows come from Alabama
otherwise - cold and dry typically ....
packfan98
Moderator
Did the Euro run today?
I'm done with this whole forum right now. I'm not going to be wasting anymore time by reading who is putting out the best observations and or analyzes. We're here as a group and we should give all each other credit.
People view things differently and they view things that best fits them. Someone shouldn't bash someone for viewing something differently and what that person is looking for. When I look at these models I look at everything and not just the H5 maps. Also, someone should not try to control someone into what they are looking for. I said that there would be a storm during the 10th-13th and my prediction is coming true regardless of it not affecting the SE states.
How did I predict it? Based off of a lot of things and not just H5 maps. So, with these threads coming off topic and wasting time, I'm done for now on this whole forum.
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People view things differently and they view things that best fits them. Someone shouldn't bash someone for viewing something differently and what that person is looking for. When I look at these models I look at everything and not just the H5 maps. Also, someone should not try to control someone into what they are looking for. I said that there would be a storm during the 10th-13th and my prediction is coming true regardless of it not affecting the SE states.
How did I predict it? Based off of a lot of things and not just H5 maps. So, with these threads coming off topic and wasting time, I'm done for now on this whole forum.
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Storm5
Member
don't be sorry for asking lol . it's not looking good right now.
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Storm5
Member
yes it's still faster with the wave. rain for everyone even the MA
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Phil,
Good ATL snows almost always have a Gulf low associated with them (along with WSW to SW H5 flow) albeit it is more often than not a weak or even very weak low. The 3/1993 Storm of the Century was the strongest Gulf low by far that gave ATL major snow. 3/1/2009 was a very rare exception of a bowling ball upper low without an attendant Gulf low. Actually, I haven't found another major ATL snow from a pure bowling ball!
The snow will almost always move in from AL but the main moisture source is nearly always Gulf moisture.
pcbjr
Member
Yup! In early January we had a case in Tallahasse and I had folks in from Atl to testify; all the models were showing them getting crushed. Those folks are not weather people. I was concerned about them driving back Friday night. They were too - b/c "it's coming from Alabama" ... Sometimes it makes sense to go with history, I suppose!
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
So, do we have a storm threat or not?
Don,
This may not be a popular thing to say right now, but I hope you don't leave the forum. Whereas you do have a unique and controversial way of forecasting, I think it is more interesting when a forum has different views with robust discussion. (I don't at all mean fighting/name calling when I say robust discussion.)
pcbjr
Member
Yeah - this is not American
No, Brick, it is pretty close to dead now IMO. The GFS suite has been horrendous with this. The GFS cold bias, which I think is indirectly relevant, has been awful.
Jon
Member
Yep...it wasn't good. More in line with the 12z GFS with the energy being stung out and not digging until it's out to sea.
12z Models are all over the place with ridge height and energy orientation north of Washington state. Something to watch. I'd say this one is over but until the models agree on speed and look of this energy, I'm still watching. 12z NAM is interesting with this look
Canadian is way too north with the ridge
Optimism level at about 5% haha.
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pcbjr
Member
One thing that has attracted me to this bb is that almost all major posters have gotten along pretty well. Also, with it being new, there are no cliques to worry about. All are treated like equals. I hope it remains that way as that is quite refreshing. As time goes along, these things can change due to human nature. We need to be careful.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I haven't declared this dead, but I'm about ready to, if there's no improvement at 0z I think this threat is done. It's a shame but a model that is typically cold biased in the CMC being warm when it showed a storm earlier on is a bad sign.
pcbjr
Member
Appropriate for a Sunday I suppose - Amen Brother!
btw - Amen literally translates to "let it be"
BillT
Member
where does the arrogance on the other board come from please? they are mocking the people here over this thread and honestly the people with SENSE are posting here......while the other board is mostly clowns playing silly games.
packfan98
Moderator
I totally agree with Larry here. I like the fact that this board is focused on the weather and learning while still being lighthearted. Pessimism and sarcasm 24/7 wears thin very quickly. I would hate to see anyone leave who is genuine in their passion for weather. That works both ways though. Being open minded and willing to listen and learn will keep you young at heart. I was way wrong with some model analysis I gave yesterday. I have tried to learn from folks who have more experience than me. That will hopefully improve my take on things as time goes by.
When a potential threat starts to dominate a pattern discussion thread, I feel it's better to move it to it's own thread. Creating this thread wasn't a fail at all, regardless of the outcome.
I guess it's become normal and expected to threaten to ban your core members if they make a thread and it doesn't work out. We don't do that here.
I guess it's become normal and expected to threaten to ban your core members if they make a thread and it doesn't work out. We don't do that here.
I'm going to stay here on the forum, I'm just cooling off the steam. I'm not that kind of person to leave things behind and not to be hateful.
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Yep one thing we are trying to do here is promote discussion and learning. I think there is a good amount of useful info posted here daily. I guess if people want to post witty 1 liners and constant cynicism they have their place.
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whatalife
Moderator
There's still going to be a system just not the one we want...LOL!
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pcbjr
Member
I have no problem with funny banter at times and people inserting sarcasm into threads. The gifs are a great example. My problem lies when someone constantly post lines of negative drivel for the sake of if.
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I agree 100% with this. I think that once a storm threat starts dominating a thread regardless of how far out or how remote the chance the storm has to materialize, it is best it be in its own thread so as not to overly dominate a general pattern discussion thread. Also, hindsight is 20:20. It is easy to say after the fact or getting closer to the fact that there won't be a winter storm. But it was hard to know with high confidence when this thread was started that there wouldn't be a winter storm due largely to the GFS suite.
So, what is the big harm that this thread exists even if no SE winter storm materializes?
pcbjr
Member
above my pay-grade to elaborate on - but a lot of good info today - really
olhausen
Member
So the euro says if you want snow you better go to Green Bay or Maine. I think we are all just a little frustrated with the way this winter continues to play out. I feel I should probably step away from watching the weather models for a few days but it's doubtful that will happen before march.