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Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

SD said:
I have no problem with funny banter at times and people inserting sarcasm into threads. The gifs are a great example. My problem lies when someone constantly post lines of negative drivel for the sake of if.

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Holy mackerel!
 
I somewhat agree with separating the discussion but there is a very fine line to walk because the likelihood of failure with a winter storm is off the charts. Failure always leads to emotions so the threat of conflict is also off the charts. Just my opinion. Carry on.
 
I just don't get the harm in a storm thread if that's really all anyone is talking boutique and there is a chance. If it doesn't work out, so what. It doesn't blow up the board.
 
packfan98 said:
I totally agree with Larry here. I like the fact that this board is focused on the weather and learning while still being lighthearted. Pessimism and sarcasm 24/7 wears thin very quickly. I would hate to see anyone leave who is genuine in their passion for weather. That works both ways though. Being open minded and willing to listen and learn will keep you young at heart. I was way wrong with some model analysis I gave yesterday. I have tried to learn from folks who have more experience than me. That will hopefully improve my take on things as time goes by.
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Its ashame how the other forum is and so far i haven't seen that on here. I remember when eastern was running it was fun to read silly comments and also learn weather. The other one started like that then when some become in charge of it they became control freaks. They have their favorites. The favorites can say anything and nothing is ever said. While others make a remark and get a wsrning point or banned. Lol like we are in elementary school. The forums are great to learn weather, meet new people and even laugh. I have some met some good people on them. The bashing of mets and even people gets old on all forums. This forum seem to be going well. Are we going to disagree? Absolutely its the way life is but to form cliques or act like you are a control freak then you will eventually lose the ones that keep forums up. Some will ask questions that may seem stupid to some but i dont think any of us wereborn weather pros from birth. We all learn and appreciate the hard work that many of you do on these forums. We all love snow but we do live in the NE or Montana where we are going to get a 100 inches a year. Stay positive and agree to disagree but keep this place fun.
 
And if it the storm thread doesn't work out, it has been well documented the progression and failures of the modeling. It makes for a great study tool for future potential events. Post EPIC FAIL in the title and use it for research.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, the 500 hpa level actually can control the surface, in fact, anywhere in the atmospheric column at or above the surface can influence what occurs near the ground via mass continuity (among a host of other forces). The 500 hpa level is often chosen to analyze features such as vorticity because it's the level of non-divergence wherein mass is usually neither diverging or converging in this layer, these tend to occur at the boundaries of the troposphere....
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I don't think you got my point. Never did I say that the H5 level can't control the surface conditions. Obviously it can because surface pressure is a result of air weight/from the air aloft. I said that the surface isn't only controlled by H5 and other factors in the atmosphere also influence the surface.

You're agreeing with me but being defensive.


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There's a nice meted course about jetsreaks if any of you need help understanding atmospheric dynamics and their relation to surface conditions.


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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I'm going to stay here on the forum, I'm just cooling off the steam. I'm not that kind of person to leave things behind and not to be hateful.

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Yes I agree with GaWX and you are a north Georgia guy like myself so I like to read your insights on the weather as well.


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SD said:
Yep one thing we are trying to do here is promote discussion and learning. I think there is a good amount of useful info posted here daily. I guess if people want to post witty 1 liners and constant cynicism they have their place.

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the best part is people have to come to our site to read posts of the people their mods ran off for no reason . but that's what you get when you have mods that think they should ride in on a white horse and call out their best posters all the time. Pathetic, they should do more moderating and less yapping . They ran off one of the smartest young posters in the country for no reason . Idiots

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I think when this thread was created it should have been titled "Model Discussion for 2/9-2/10. I think the long to medium range models are having a hard time with this time period. So, I'm waiting in till the entire time period is inside 84 hrs. I want to see the entire time period on the NAM first before I take this time period off the table.

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bouncycorn said:
I don't think you got my point. Never did I say that the H5 level can't control the surface conditions. Obviously it can because surface pressure is a result of air weight/from the air aloft. I said that the surface isn't only controlled by H5 and other factors in the atmosphere also influence the surface.

You're agreeing with me but being defensive.


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I don't think anyone is saying there aren't other factors. What is being said is you can't work from the bottom up

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NorthGAWinterWx said:
I think when this thread was created it should have been titled "Model Discussion for 2/9-2/10. I think the long to medium range models are having a hard time with this time period. So, I'm waiting in till the entire time period is inside 84 hrs. I want to see the entire time period on the NAM first before I take this time period off the table.

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that's a good idea. maybe we will do that from now on with anything outside day 5

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SD said:
I don't think anyone is saying there aren't other factors. What is being said is you can't work from the bottom up

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Warm or cold surface air/surface air advection can work from the bottom up and is a situation that models *really* struggle with, so it's important to understand it.

I wasn't really trying to refute anyone from the start. Just trying to help any beginners on the thread to not go straight to H5 and use it as an end-all solution. That's all.


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bouncycorn said:
Warm or cold surface air/surface air advection can work from the bottom up and is a situation that models *really* struggle with, so it's important to understand it.

I wasn't really trying to refute anyone from the start. Just trying to help any beginners on the thread to not go straight to H5 and use it as an end-all solution. That's all.


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Understood we are all good.

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Is CAD an exception to the idea of H5 dominating the sfc? I don't know. Any thoughts?
 
So, tbh, I think this thread should be locked or deleted and start over a fresh thread titled, "Model Discussion for 2/9-2/10" since this thread went into the trash bags lol. To start the new thread, that's up to the admins.

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