• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Learning Model Discussion 2/9-2/10

This event unfortunately isn't going to happen for most in the SE it doesn't look like.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Last edited:
NorthGAWinterWx said:
If you look at the GEFS mean, you can see that event what those members show during the 9th. The mean spread shows another wave coming through MS/AL/GA and then off of the southeast coast on the 10th. So, there could be two waves.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

And we definitely need the rain.
 
yuck ....06z gefs
2d9a2f09fc30ebdc2d45a1b7fc556804.jpg


Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
I think that it is safe to say, the models don't know anything of what is going on. They are flying all over the place as new data comes in like a dog does in a tennis court. They are settling a bit, but once more, 12Z should have something new to offer to the game. Who knows what the difference will be, but I think we will either see no energy at all and a focus on the new wave, or no new wave and more focus on the original second system.
 
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
And if there is a storm, it will be all rain for AL/GA.
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
GOOD MORNINNNNNNN SOUTHERN WEATHERRRR!! (In Robin Williams voice) lol. Well, today is Super Bowl Sunday, if there is going to be a storm, we may start to see better model runs today.

It's also going to depend on the cutter (I said this more than one time). Yesterday, on the 18z run, it showed that stationary front from the cutter sagging down off the SE coast and down through southern GA/northern FL while the interaction began off of the SE coast.

Now, the 06z GFS has the stationary front further north and it's more tilted and not sagging down almost in a straight line, that's why the interaction taking place much further north over the Mid-Atlantic.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Wouldn't the first low up in the lakes have to be stronger as well? It looks like each run weakens it, and in return allows the unwanted wave to develop and move north of us, leaving no room for the original second wave to develop.
 
If you look at hr 84 on the 06z GFS that low sitting over western AR...that low has a warm front, you can see rain showers breaking out. At first there's a stationary front there but it becomes a warm front. That's one reason why it's warm. For it to be colder, that stationary front needs to be further south.

Another reason why it's warm, that surface high isn't down far enough to provide the colder air. Need to see that further south.

Last night on the 0z mean spread it showed another wave. The 06z GFS has as the 2nd wave but it just fizzles out.



Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
You've got to know when to hold 'em Know when to fold 'em
Know when to walk away And know when to run
You never count your money When you're sittin' at the table
There'll be time enough for counting When the dealin's done

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Well right now we have a 6 of clubs and a 7 of clubs in the hole.... do we want to stay in and see a flop?
 
According to today's indices, the +PNA spike is very close to the same time as the -AO peak.
 
There is not going to be a third wave here. Or better put, that so called third wave is going to be light snow in Tennessee or nothing. What this storm relied on was redevelopment with help from a gulf shortwave and after the second wave sped up, there isn't another gulf shortwave to help the last wave.

Unless this moves back to 2/10, I'm declaring this one over. I've tried to be optimistic for at least the upper south but the new idea is too fast and too far north.
 
The storm has sped up by 24 hours since the Thursday snowy runs on the latest GFS...the energy works out great on the 6z, there's just not enough cold. The ridging is also where we want it. Truly a shame this thing moves so fast, that's what we get from a high sliding west to east. I still think the latest GFS is too fast with the wave and the EPS offers some hope with a handful of members lagging back...but yeah, this is trending away from NC too.'


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
There is not going to be a third wave here. Or better put, that so called third wave is going to be light snow in Tennessee or nothing. What this storm relied on was redevelopment with help from a gulf shortwave and after the second wave sped up, there isn't another gulf shortwave to help the last wave.

Unless this moves back to 2/10, I'm declaring this one over. I've tried to be optimistic for at least the upper south but the new idea is too fast and too far north.
Click to expand...
It was just two runs of the same data cycle. I wouldn't expect the same situation by tomorrow's 6Z runs at all. Things overall aren't looking the best, but until I see 8 or more runs in a row of a cutter, or a different solution I wouldn't be set on anything,
 
ForsythSnow said:
It was just two runs of the same data cycle. I wouldn't expect the same situation by tomorrow's 6Z runs at all. Things overall aren't looking the best, but until I see 8 or more runs in a row of a cutter, or a different solution I wouldn't be set on anything,
Click to expand...

Its not really a cutter, its just too far north. A cutter for me is a system that goes to the Great Lakes.

Maybe we have another 0z run that has us going wait...what?
 
I've done plenty of analyzing, if I don't start to see what I want to see on future model suites, I'm putting this off the table. 12z GFS is just now rolling out.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
If you look at this small sleet we had this morning, which model predicted it? The HRRR maybe did, but not the GFS or anything else from what I know. That adds another tally against the models knowing what is going on. They said if it was possible, it would be ZR, not sleet. I think that it was mentioned that the upcoming +PNA may be skewing it, but I don't know if I would trust these model runs up to the day. Let's hope we get surprised.
 
I'll give it to 0z but what I was afraid of might be happening. The GFS being right on a system being there, but its cold was over modeled all along.
 
For what it's worth, the NAM is slower ejecting that energy out from the NW. Before, I've spoke on how we don't want it to hold back too long...that's true, but we also don't want it to start ejecting too soon either.

Here's the NAM valid 00z 2/9
K4AJVe4.gif


and the 06z GFS valid 00z 2/9
Ep4WOOv.gif
 
At 78 hours, 12z GFS is hanging back much more than the 6z...it appears it will be a better run and a later storm as long as everything goes to plan downstream. I like the look so far and it's falling in like with the NAM run I posted above.
 
The main energy is elongating by 87 hours, probably not going to be what we wanted but it's actually a good thing the GFS didn't hold onto the 6z result.
 
93 hours, energy remains flat along the ridge...energy is much stronger but just not digging...we want to see it digging by now
 
This is even faster now and I don't think we're going to see a third wave this time, if this is that fast and the final batch just dissipates this is both all rain even in most of KY/VA and the wrong dates for this system.
 
The third batch will come out but it looks weaker than the last run and there won't be a gulf s/w to help it.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This is even faster now and I don't think we're going to see a third wave this time, if this is that fast and the final batch just dissipates this is both all rain even in most of KY/VA and the wrong dates for this system.
Click to expand...
This run is much slower and hangs the energy out west, the energy never digs, and the ridge builds and the energy is never reflected on the surface pressure maps. This is much better than the 06z solution.
 
The 12z run of the GFS is pretty much the same as 06z. The low over AR is little further south. It needs to be closer to the Gulf coast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
 
NorthGAWinterWx said:
The 12z run of the GFS is pretty much the same as 06z. The low over AR is little further south. It needs to be closer to the Gulf coast.

Sent from my SM-J700T1 using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Surface maps are kind of useless, you need to be looking at H5 which shows a different solution than 6z. It's quite a bit different
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top