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Pattern Mega March 2023

ICON looks interesting once again.

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LickWx said:
We will see. Either way, averages are rising so cold will likely just be mostly 50s . Maybe 40s on colder days . Of course, there are exceptions. A powerful arctic blast mid March could easily yield a 44/22 type of day . Though that doesn’t seem to be on the table as of now.
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You are correct that the time of year we’re going into that colder than average will be highs in the low to mid 50s, but there is a considerable amount of cold building in NW Canada now. While I think the coldest anamolies will continue to be towards the north and west unless we get more western ridging, no one should discount the effects that the MJO, -AO, and -NAO are going to have on muting the SER more.
 
Chazwin said:
You are correct that the time of year we’re going into that colder than average will be highs in the low to mid 50s, but there is a considerable amount of cold building in NW Canada now. While I think the coldest anamolies will continue to be towards the north and west unless we get more western ridging, no one should discount the effects that the MJO, -AO, and -NAO are going to have on muting the SER more.
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still looks troughy to me out west. the se ridge contiunues to fight
 
I’m not sure if our weather links up to the the MJO in the same ways it once did. There are new relationships in this era of warmer waters we are still trying to figure out. Sure the warm phases are warm but that’s our current base state. I would not count out a -PNA based on a forecast this far out.


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LickWx said:
We will see. Either way, averages are rising so cold will likely just be mostly 50s . Maybe 40s on colder days . Of course, there are exceptions. A powerful arctic blast mid March could easily yield a 44/22 type of day . Though that doesn’t seem to be on the table as of now.
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While yes you can get *clear* cold days like that but if we have that type of air over us more than likely 850s are below zero by a bit and if we can find a way to get precip in that we easily have chances at winter precip.
 
Chazwin said:
You are correct that the time of year we’re going into that colder than average will be highs in the low to mid 50s, but there is a considerable amount of cold building in NW Canada now. While I think the coldest anamolies will continue to be towards the north and west unless we get more western ridging, no one should discount the effects that the MJO, -AO, and -NAO are going to have on muting the SER more.
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Respectfully, I’m not too sure about all that cold in Canada.

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LickWx said:
We will see. Either way, averages are rising so cold will likely just be mostly 50s . Maybe 40s on colder days . Of course, there are exceptions. A powerful arctic blast mid March could easily yield a 44/22 type of day . Though that doesn’t seem to be on the table as of now.
Click to expand...
At this point I would just like to have some seasonable weather. There was no winter this year AT ALL; a few days in December do not change the whole season. Seasonable weather in March isn't cold but isn't hot either; it would actually be pleasant for most. True cold and snow are very unlikely but average March weather would help keep the heat at bay for a bit. You warm guys have had it all to yourselves this winter, at least let us have a normal Spring please.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
At this point I would just like to have some seasonable weather. There was no winter this year AT ALL; a few days in December do not change the whole season. Seasonable weather in March isn't cold but isn't hot either; it would actually be pleasant for most. True cold and snow are very unlikely but average March weather would help keep the heat at bay for a bit. You warm guys have had it all to yourselves this winter, at least let us have a normal Spring please.
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Sorry you have to call corporate Warm Weenies inc. I’m just a low level salesman, I have no control over the weather!
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
At this point I would just like to have some seasonable weather. There was no winter this year AT ALL; a few days in December do not change the whole season. Seasonable weather in March isn't cold but isn't hot either; it would actually be pleasant for most. True cold and snow are very unlikely but average March weather would help keep the heat at bay for a bit. You warm guys have had it all to yourselves this winter, at least let us have a normal Spring please.
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We don’t control the weather. You wouldn’t want us to .


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ATLwxfan said:
Respectfully, I’m not too sure about all that cold in Canada.

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Ok that’s the GFS operational at 384 hours. This week much of NW Canada territories are going to be seeing widespread -20 to -40 degree cold building up. Now I agree that the heart of that will be focused to the northwest as it comes into the lower 48, but we saw back during December just how much the models were trying to keep the SER flexing strong despite the strong blocking up north and they ended up wrong. Now again I’m not seeing we in the east are going to see anything like the temperature anamolies we saw around Christmas, but I am seeing I’m very concerned that we’re still going to in for some freezes at night which will have a very strong effect on our growing season. Yes I’m in the fresh produce business so this is something I follow closely
 
Chazwin said:
Ok that’s the GFS operational at 384 hours. This week much of NW Canada territories are going to be seeing widespread -20 to -40 degree cold building up. Now I agree that the heart of that will be focused to the northwest as it comes into the lower 48, but we saw back during December just how much the models were trying to keep the SER flexing strong despite the strong blocking up north and they ended up wrong. Now again I’m not seeing we in the east are going to see anything like the temperature anamolies we saw around Christmas, but I am seeing I’m very concerned that we’re still going to in for some freezes at night which will have a very strong effect on our growing season. Yes I’m in the fresh produce business so this is something I follow closely
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I think as the Nina influence fades and the -PNA relaxes you definitely would have concern for a frost. It could be April though which wouldn’t be unheard of and hopefully short in duration and not so damaging.


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ATLwxfan said:
I think as the Nina influence fades and the -PNA relaxes you definitely would have concern for a frost. It could be April though which wouldn’t be unheard of and hopefully short in duration and not so damaging.


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Yeah.. there have been a number of hard April freezes over the years as La Niña comes to and end.
 
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