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Pattern Mega March 2023

ATLwxfan said:
GFS op shows a lot of our cooling will be CAD driven and doesn’t quite suppress the ridge as much as you might want. We get almost a zonal look. Overnight lows stay above freezing which bodes well for the early blooms.


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Plants sure do like to roll the dice.


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SnowNiner said:
I'd need some barney purple departures over the Carolinas to make me think there's a chance for a legit threat. And being around so long, I know how this goes.
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Euro Control has entered the chat room

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Long range definitely supports overrunning depending on how much better we trend out west. Get a better pacific and stop dumping out west so much and we could potentially get driven into the icebox one more time and that doesn't typically trend well for snow as we get cold and dry most of the time. If we keep the subtropical ridge nearby where you get squished SER from the blocking overtop in the Atlantic, then yeah we can trend to some type of overrunning/CAD. Especially as we hold -NAO and the 50/50, but again you're getting into mid March with moderating air masses and a Pacific jet that is on the edge between a lot of cold and more zonal/west dumping.
 
iGRXY said:
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It sucks that we couldn't get this in January. We certainly can score especially in the CAD areas with this look but it's mid March and it's desperation time if you want frozen.
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Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
 
ForsythSnow said:
My real question is that if it's showing this, are there huge storms skewing the mean or are we seeing most of them showing slight/moderate events? Really depends to know if we are headed toward some kind of overrunning setup or just 360 hour nonsense.
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About 40% if the members have something here. There's not a big one that is really skewing
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
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That looks really nice, and I'd be excited if that look started showing up 30 days ago. With that said I bet the northeast is going to have a nice event or two. I'm going to keep an eye on it because I think the mountains could certainly get a nice hit. I'll run up last minute if I need to get snow this year.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
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March 1960 repeat getting a late start.
 
I really have never thought early to mid March is THAT bad for us to be able to get snow in the upper SE regions. Given a solid pattern there is still plenty of cold air we can tap into and wave lengths aren’t too funky. When was the last high amp phase 8 in March? I would like to see some of those historical maps
 
The Euro may even be underestimating how cold we could get as a result of the SSWE. Could still get interesting.

In the meantime we have two legit shots to hit 80°in ATL tomorrow and Wednesday and with lower dew points!!!


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rburrel2 said:
The eps is an icebox from 240hrs until the end of the run. Weenie stuff. It’s probably too late but it’ll still be before March 15th so worth watching.
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NickyBGuarantee said:
I really have never thought early to mid March is THAT bad for us to be able to get snow in the upper SE regions. Given a solid pattern there is still plenty of cold air we can tap into and wave lengths aren’t too funky. When was the last high amp phase 8 in March? I would like to see some of those historical maps
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Really I think it just comes down to getting that elusive favorable pattern as much as anything, which is what we struggle to get regardless of month.

Put together these charts for CLT back in 2017. Climo snowfall in Dec and March mimics each other. Early Dec = Late Mar. Late Dec = Early Mar

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griteater said:
Really I think it just comes down to getting that elusive favorable pattern as much as anything, which is what we struggle to get regardless of month.

Put together these charts for CLT back in 2017. Climo snowfall in Dec and March mimics each other. Early Dec = Late Mar. Late Dec = Early Mar

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What this tells me is that December and March are basically the same in terms of snow climo for Charlotte. Yet i've heard over and over how March is so much better for snow than December.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yep. Sucks it’s March. Checks every check box for snow, 50/50-confluence and a west based block keeping it stuck, extended pacific jet feeding in pacific energy, cutoff ridge near Alaska (-WPO/-EPO) feeding in the Arctic, it’s one of the best looks you can ask for. But it’s March and climo says we should be entering 60s for highs. Not ideal for us
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To me if I’m in the Northeast or MA my ears would be perked up to get something pretty decent as we close the season. CAD areas of NC/SC/NEGA can score but you’re looking at grasping straws to get even 30-32 BL temps even with this look because it’s mid March. I mean we will be below average and it certainly will still feel like winter for most of March but it’s still not cold enough IMO for us to score a legit winter storm at this point
 
Strongly negative epo/wpo and some semblance of a -nao and ao. If we can't score in that setup, even though it's beginning to mid march, we need to focus on other things lol.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Looks like coldest air on the planet is over the East and SE! Better late than never!
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I mean these are anomalies not absolute temps.

But yeah it won’t be what it is right now that’s for sure. The bathtub will slosh.


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That is the coldest epo eps map I've seen in a long time. In all seriousness, if we can't score with this, we will never score lol. ?‍♂️
 
Itryatgolf said:
That is the coldest epo eps map I've seen in a long time. In all seriousness, if we can't score with this, we will never score lol.
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There’s a difference between being cold and scoring. I agree though the constellation of EPO/NAO/PNA/MJO checks the boxes. I would lose hope if we didn’t score in climo winter in this scenario but not Mid March.


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ATLwxfan said:
There’s a difference between being cold and scoring. I agree though the constellation of EPO/NAO/PNA/MJO checks the boxes. I would lose hope if we didn’t score in climo winter in this scenario but not Mid March.


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Yeah, so much has to go right for you to score outside the mountains the deeper we go into March. While I’m very confident we’ll have at least a 10-14 stretch of below average, possibly well below average, temperatures, I just simply have no confidence of anyone scoring a late season snow outside of the mountains, adjacent foothills, and areas north of I-40 up into VA.
 
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