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Pattern Mega March 2023

18z GFS just did something funny
 
gfs being stubborn bout some snow round here next friday,will it cave to the euro and canadian or other way around??anybody got any ensemble news o this?
 
ForsythSnow said:
Still running but 12z had a few interesting members close to this and one very massive storm, which was the map below View attachment 133532
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Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
Click to expand...
Yeah, but I would definitely watch late next week for severe weather. Models do seem to all support the idea of a system with strong dynamics.
 
Might just be me, but this isn't a ideal situation the GFS is projecting snow wise for my area at least. Zero anchoring high to the North.

gfs_mslpa_us_35.png



Euro has the right evolution IMO

ecmwf_mslpa_us_59.png
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Unfortunately I wouldn’t expect much from this. In terms of winter weather at least. The pattern still wouldn’t favor this as I’m sure the SER will trend a bit stronger and push this track further NW… but this is likely the storm that would start the trend to a favorable week 2 of March… that’s when I would be looking for more fun to pop up.. GFS shows the increasingly favorable pacific by then.
Click to expand...
I’ll still watch for winter weather for the mountains if anything
 
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. 25D06FA2-F963-4F8C-A205-0AF6FDA9DC34.jpeg02186193-E081-4806-90F5-EBA95BB9016B.jpeg
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. View attachment 133538View attachment 133539
Click to expand...
If you want snow in March in the SE, you're going to need those deep greens over you, not the light blues. This ain't January.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
If you thought we were going to go happily straight into spring.. you will be sorely mistaken. Winter will make its return in March .. quite impressively as well. If we’re going to find a way to get snow in this winter it’s going to have to be in this pattern. Euro weeklies continue to support this robust return to winter. Most models shooting for an intense shift into a high amplitude phase 8. +PNA will return. And so will snow chances. View attachment 133538View attachment 133539
Click to expand...
58CA5C27-EB12-4FE6-9A1D-AAFB9E4042FF.jpeg


You need medication.
 
Itryatgolf said:
With the ao and epo eventually trending negative, we will get cold. Kinda agree with SD on whole artic dumping on us
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Yeah there are certainly some signs now of colder times once we get to around 3/8-3/10. The AO and NAO look to be going in the tank and the MJO, which is now on the left side of the circle now appears to be headed towards a high amp phase 8… we’ve not seen high cold phases modeled this whole winter. Also there are indications showing of legit a legit cold airmass building up in NW Canada starting next week… widespread -25 to -40 degree cold which is impressive when you consider those areas are approaching 8 hours of daylight now. I don’t know if we’ll get cold enough for snow opportunities, but northern areas of southeast may at least have a shot.
 
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