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Pattern Mega March 2023

Past few runs on the gfs and gefs has been looking very interesting
 
GFS more transient with the cold and the ridge builds back. Maybe the ridge gets beat down at the end of the run but who knows how that pans out.


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GFS more transient with the cold and the ridge builds back. Maybe the ridge gets beat down at the end of the run but who knows how that pans out.


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It's still hard to buy a long duration cold event with the pacific still in the toilet. The cmc gets cold but it rapidly pulls the nao west and traps the trough under the block. Possible? Sure. Likely? No. If you are looking for any long duration BN weather you have to wait until the nao retrograde well west and looking at the ensembles that still a way away

You can see centered around D10 how the gefs pulls the trough through but then the trough in the PNW starts to deepen and back west and the STR starts pushing north, can't do much more here than a 1-3 day slightly BN cold shot before 70s and 80s are knocking at the door againgfs-ens_z500a_us_fh192-294.gif
 
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You'll get your cold albeit transient, but if the Euro continued we were fixing to have a huge dump out west again so rinse and repeat. At least we have the -NAO to keep from getting this week part 2 more than likely. But if anyone is expecting winter weather, I'd damper those expectations considerably. The Pacific is just too wrecked to think we are going to get anything other than CAD right now at best.
 
And that was a catastrophic winter up to that point, too. You never know!
It was in the high 70's Low 80's for DAYS up till, that Early afternoon.. (Here in SENC)..
Going from (Bolivia, NC to Wilmington, It was snowing when I left Bolivia, & then high 70's arriving in ILM.. (distance of roughly 30 miles).
With Hurricane force winds in between.
 
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