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Pattern Mega March 2023

iGRXY said:
I got a good feeling as we build blocking over the top we will be able to start squashing the SER more as we get into the medium range, but I still highly doubt we come away with anything other than 40's and 50's for highs.
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Probably more like few 40s/50s sprinkled into really warm periods, like the EPS plumes, looks like we get another strong -PNA which will advect in some really warm air, even with a -NAO, the main TPV is gonna be near scandanavia, pacific polar is gonna be the best bet on any cool, and that’s moderating quickly as we enter spring
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Probably more like few 40s/50s sprinkled into really warm periods, like the EPS plumes, looks like we get another strong -PNA which will advect in some really warm air, even with a -NAO, the main TPV is gonna be near scandanavia, pacific polar is gonna be the best bet on any cool, and that’s moderating quickly as we enter spring
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Yeah no doubt spring is fast approaching
 
iGRXY said:
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You'll get your cold albeit transient, but if the Euro continued we were fixing to have a huge dump out west again so rinse and repeat. At least we have the -NAO to keep from getting this week part 2 more than likely. But if anyone is expecting winter weather, I'd damper those expectations considerably. The Pacific is just too wrecked to think we are going to get anything other than CAD right now at best.
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The trend on CAD events recently have been to underperform.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
Probably more like few 40s/50s sprinkled into really warm periods, like the EPS plumes, looks like we get another strong -PNA which will advect in some really warm air, even with a -NAO, the main TPV is gonna be near scandanavia, pacific polar is gonna be the best bet on any cool, and that’s moderating quickly as we enter spring
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Yessir…PNA looks to reload. Multiple 70+ days in ATL over the next couple of weeks. Meanwhile the northeast gets shellacked! Want to avoid winter weather? Come southeast my friends!


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Itryatgolf said:
To me, it's interesting the pna is still hanging on out west with movement of the mjo and SSW we have attained. Could be wrong but I still feel March will be cold at some point but too late when it happens.
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Yeah for sure. Definitely not going to be the 1st week of March. Looks like around the 10th hopefully we started to trend colder but we are about out of time for winter weather but I'm just hoping for a return to a least average or below average temps or at least cold at night. Who knows what will happen for us going forward but out west will continue to be a lock for cold and snow. Looks like it's going to take a miracle from here out to get a day with highs in the upper 40s and lows in the upper 20s. I hate the southeast weather in winter but it's my home and has been for 40s. Looking forward to colder days ahead. If I didn't have hope I couldn't make it living around here.
 
I still believe winter returns in week 2 of march. Breaking down -PNA possibly flipping to + .. anomalous west based -NAO.. 50/50 for fun? .. building up cold high pressures. Solid phase 8 MJO .. it screams last hurrah possibility. A very similar look to what we were dealing with in December. Best look we’ve had since then. Obviously this is operational model but the general premise I see happening around week 2 of march or so .. too little too late? Maybe so.. but I’ll take my odds in this dumpster fire of a winter and regardless it’ll be a snap back reality for many that we’re still in the cold season. 32DDBEDA-36B8-41E0-931A-4057D8133776.jpeg
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NickyBGuarantee said:
I still believe winter returns in week 2 of march. Breaking down -PNA possibly flipping to + .. anomalous west based -NAO.. 50/50 for fun? .. building up cold high pressures. Solid phase 8 MJO .. it screams last hurrah possibility. A very similar look to what we were dealing with in December. Best look we’ve had since then. Obviously this is operational model but the general premise I see happening around week 2 of march or so .. too little too late? Maybe so.. but I’ll take my odds in this dumpster fire of a winter and regardless it’ll be a snap back reality for many that we’re still in the cold season. View attachment 133514
View attachment 133513View attachment 133515
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That’s a better look in terms of the MJO if you want cold. Right on cue the GEFS seems to suppress the ridge around March 6th.

But it’s a ways off and a lot can change. As for right now, the warmth is real and it’s impressive 70° at 7:30 AM in Alpharetta. What a time to be alive.

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ATLwxfan said:
That’s a better look in terms of the MJO if you want cold. Right on cue the GEFS seems to suppress the ridge around March 6th.

But it’s a ways off and a lot can change. As for right now, the warmth is real and it’s impressive 70° at 7:30 AM in Alpharetta. What a time to be alive.

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Not if you like winter.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
I still believe winter returns in week 2 of march. Breaking down -PNA possibly flipping to + .. anomalous west based -NAO.. 50/50 for fun? .. building up cold high pressures. Solid phase 8 MJO .. it screams last hurrah possibility. A very similar look to what we were dealing with in December. Best look we’ve had since then. Obviously this is operational model but the general premise I see happening around week 2 of march or so .. too little too late? Maybe so.. but I’ll take my odds in this dumpster fire of a winter and regardless it’ll be a snap back reality for many that we’re still in the cold season. View attachment 133514
View attachment 133513View attachment 133515
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If the average high is over 60 are you really still in the cold season? If the calendar says March are you really truly in the cold season nicky?
 
ATLwxfan said:
The trend on CAD events recently have been to underperform.


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Ehhhhhhhhhh ...... Maybe in ATL but in traditional areas that is not true at all. We just haven't gotten winter weather out of it. Hell last week 80% of the board was in the 60's and 70's while CAD areas in the Carolinas were in the low to mid 50's.
 
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I just don't see it honestly. This pattern in January could work to get CAD and overrunning because it's peak climo with legit winter air masses available. This is just more dumping out west and a slow bleed east. That gets you below average some but definitely not enough to get snow. And counting on trying to get that in mid March is very very risky anyways. Hopefully we start seeing the MJO going into cold phases as depicted and start kicking the ridge over Alaska east, but I have my doubts until I actually see it happen. I'm kind of to that point this winter.
 
I'm crying, the GFS went for it but it cut. The pattern just favors far western areas to see any type of winter weather and on this side of the Apps will get cold chasing moisture and probably a few days of below average temps and dry.
 
iGRXY said:
Ehhhhhhhhhh ...... Maybe in ATL but in traditional areas that is not true at all. We just haven't gotten winter weather out of it. Hell last week 80% of the board was in the 60's and 70's while CAD areas in the Carolinas were in the low to mid 50's.
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ATL does typically benefit from CAD, especially in the spring. This year the CAD so far has not been as much of a factor for us.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
I wouldn’t be looking for cold until the second week of march. Anything before that I’d worry about severe weather or cold rains
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Yeah looking at the GFS (as depicted), day 9 & 10 would maybe provide a light freeze/frost for some; but other than that nothing (above freezing nights). I wonder if the NWS would start their frost/freeze packages (warnings) early. After all this warm weather there is going to be an early leaf out.
 
NCSNOW said:
LOL

A massive winter storm could bring blizzard-like conditions to Los Angeles this weekend. For the first time since 1989, the National Weather Service has issued a blizzard warning for Friday (February 24) and Saturday in Los Angeles and Ventura counties.
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Portland just saw its 2nd snowiest day on record(10.8 inches) on Wednesday. Literally feels like everywhere but the SE has seen extreme winter weather over the past few years.

I really hope we don’t get a 4th year La Nina next winter. This is truly rock bottom as far as winters are concerned.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Portland just saw its 2nd snowiest day on record(10.8 inches) on Wednesday. Literally feels like everywhere but the SE has seen extreme winter weather over the past few years.

I really hope we don’t get a 4th year La Nina next winter. This is truly rock bottom as far as winters are concerned.
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Likely we get an El Niño. But based on the incessant pacific influence on our airmass we’ve had, it may not give us the winter weather.


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LovingGulfLows said:
Portland just saw its 2nd snowiest day on record(10.8 inches) on Wednesday. Literally feels like everywhere but the SE has seen extreme winter weather over the past few years.

I really hope we don’t get a 4th year La Nina next winter. This is truly rock bottom as far as winters are concerned.
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Won't matter what we get as it's overruled by maritime continent convection.


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