The term lackluster doesn't even do this justice. Really frustrating that we may be looking at 2 coastals in the same winter that don't trend NW in our favor when every other stinking winter storm trends NW 99% of the time.
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snowlover91
Member
Through day 5 I'm counting 13 members that have a widespread light "dusting" of snow across NC. It's something I guess.
Remember it’s all about inside 72 hours ... let’s see how nam will trend it ... also at this point I am totally down to just see a coating hahaha
I said Sunday at 12z I want the trend.... that may be too late though
Yeah not much of a difference, maybe a tiny bit better ? I guess losing the higher pressure to the north of this coastal has helped out a tiny bit...
Snownut
Member
I believe the upstate can write off any winter weather next week and beyond. Just not enough blocking to keep the systems to the south. Without blocking winters around here will pretty much suck.
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Damn this is close
(Ensembles)
In my opinion just one tiny snowflake is a W, also if this thing can just have more strength to it it could be much better which is highly unlikely
(Ensembles)
In my opinion just one tiny snowflake is a W, also if this thing can just have more strength to it it could be much better which is highly unlikely
The 12Z Euro's H5 longwave trough is slightly west of its 0Z position and therefore may end up slightly better for NC with perhaps precip getting slightly closer to NC although temps are likely to be slightly warmer. Double edged sword. But to have any chance at all, you have to get the precip closer obviously. We'll see.
ajr
Member
Some things that are interesting to note, there's a lot less variance in the positioning of the LP of the west coast as well as the HP center over KS/OK. Makes you think that we're still a little ways away from figuring out exactly how this wave will track.
Also the GL low solutions went away.
Hour 96 looked worse (weaker low) but hour 120 looked better
What happened? The precip's NW edge ended up 25 miles closer to Cape Hatteras or about 50 miles SE. Temps warmed very slightly at 850 and 2M though 850s still sub -4C in most of NC.
25 miles a day by the time of verification and I'll be happy... thanks for the update. Still doable imo but a fine line we walk of course with temps
Welp the conclusion so far from 12z guidance is that things can still change but the question is how far can it go ?
You're welcome. Keep in mind the precip was 25 miles closer just since the run of 12 hours earlier, not vs 24 hours back as myfro is comparing to.
Yeah, idk why but TT compares the euro from 24 hours ago and you can’t change that ?
Gotcha.... lol ok slow down then, 50 miles a day and it'll be too far NW
Because they are 24 hr frames and it's comparing same validation time.
We can do fine with a +PNA, that’s what has been missing this year, and how we have scored the last few years, with no blocking. Thread the needle
Snownut
Member
Right but who enjoys threading the needle when it comes to winter? We know that hardly ever works here.
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