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Good run for Boston. Playing a little late season climo catchup
I wish snowshoe wasn’t 7 hours away. I would go there next weekend 
Not hardly but I will say it felt good to know one thing you didn't lolI’m dumb ....???
20s and 30s showing up at the US Canada border towards the end of model runs now. Winter 2019 I hate to see you go but I love to watch you walk away
GEPS took a step in the right direction
Yeah with a handful of members just off the coast..... are we the only one's actually still following this? Lol
packfan98
Moderator
No, I'm following too. I just don't have much to add. When a system is suppressed to the SE and you are 100 hours out, you are still in the game. Good trends with the 12z suite with regards to the west extension of the PV in Canada. My guess is it could still miss us and the MA, but swipe Boston and Nantucket. That seems to happen once a year.
snowlover91
Member
Nah I'm still keeping an eye on it, waiting for the GEPS maps to load on Meteocentre with precip. They should be out in about 40-50 mins if they come out on time, that way we can see if any of those close tracks actually bring qpf inland or not.
snowlover91
Member
Here's the CMC ensemble meteogram for RDU.
weird, eps took a seemingly better step by slowing down the L/W trough yet the LP position/low itself this run look more like crap
snowlover91
Member
Perhaps with the slowing down it's not an apples to apples comparison? Maybe the LP just takes a little longer to get going and shows up better at 102 or 108 vs the previous run? Hard to tell with 24 hour panels but that's my guess on it.
olhausen
Member
I couldn’t agree with you more. I’d have so much snow if the ensembles came even close to verifying. And the gfs is also useless and so far behind the euro. After showing some good improvements for a few runs the 12z gfs of course came in with its worse run yet and completely caved to the euro again.
It would be nice if the longwave trough could dig more aswell to help out overrunning
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The ensembles have been just as bad, if not worse, than the op runs this winter with showing snow that never happened.
snowlover91
Member
CMC ensembles hours 96 and 108, looks like a nice little improvement.
snowlover91
Member
I think the key with ensembles is they show a probability but not a guarantee of what can happen. They are also prone to being skewed one direction or another by a few big members. I find they are very useful inside 144 hours for snowfall threats and outside of that useful mainly for large-scale 5h changes/patterns but not snow. The OP runs have been pretty bad at days 6+ but solid inside the 5 day range.
That’s definitely not bad, gefs kinda similar aswell
snowlover91
Member
Yeah not bad and an improvement over the previous GEPS run.. baby steps I guess. We are going to need a considerable shift and heavier qpf to have much of a chance though, the few mm's of precip the GEPS and GEFS members have would likely be light rain/sprinkles or maybe flurries if saturation is good... and even then BL temps may be too warm for the first few mm's of precip... Still a ways to go. I'd like to see the energy moving through trend stronger as well.
Did the euro show something at the end of the run for NC? Looks interesting for overrunning potential