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Brick Tamland
Guest
Can we get a late winter storm in the southeast? Or maybe an early start to severe season? Or will we just more and more rain? Stay tuned for the March edition of As The Weather Turns!
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I expect 0 wintry chances for the entire SE. We will start cool and swing warm by mid March and end with another cool swing. Calling it now.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Too warm for snow, but the pattern will also suck for severe.
Delta Thunder
Member
Unless we get a big, upper level low with heavy, wet snow in March....It may be over. Daffodils and pear trees are in full bloom here in North Mississippi. At any rate...sustained cold does not look reasonable based on the current models.
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I predict lost of rainy days with temps between 50 and 60.
Most folks are going to love the extended 12Z EPS (do I sound like a broken record or what?), although it is a bit warmer than the 0Z for 2/27-3/1 due to stronger SER/a Miller A low coming out of the Gulf 3/1 holding back the cold further NW for then. It doesn't look quite cold enough for snow for most of the SE though as usual some of NC would be close with that setup.
TOR-CON-10
Member
I'm sure we'll have non-stop Cad reports all month long. Your cad, his cad, your momma's cad, grandma's cad in 1922. About the only thing I see on this board these days is CAD. Long live the CAD.
My great grandmas CAD was the best! Severe will be almost non-existent in the CAD areas for all of March/April, but not cold enough for snow/ice! Just look what it did to the line of storms a few days ago!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Even your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
I predict the bulk of the SE averages 1.5-3.5 AN with AN precipitation. Big mountain snow. Rain for Raleigh. Rain for Upstate SC. Lots of rain for MS, AL, GA as the cold push will not be as strong nor will the angle of cold be as favorable going into March for those guys (no more chasing anafronts) I think the big story here will be lots of cold rain for NC/SC as the transient cold air east of the mountains remains persistent, just not strong enough for wintry weather. Mostly warm days with occasional “cool” shots is the theme here
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Lol how does a map like that even happenEven your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Apparently snowed like more than 3 days straight in Roxboro and the person who made this observation ran the local newspaper (so was pretty smart) & made many snow depth obs to ensure this ob was accurate. Monster deformation band just parked right over Roxboro, Oxford, Henderson, etc. and dumped incessantly. Wake Co gradients existed even back then 6" ish close to Mcgee's Crossroads & Clayton to about 15-17" in northern Wake. Oof
The big deal about this one is it so much snow fell that it caused the collapse of the first movie theatre in the US in Washington DC (Knickerbocker Theater) & killed many inside, hence it's also more formally known as the infamous Knickerbocker Storm...
Even your grandma's snowstorm in 1922 was a Roxboro crush job, arguably the most epic one ever.
View attachment 15935
Just prior to this period, SAV had its worst icestorm on record from `1.25" of ZR 1/25-6. CHS also had ZR.
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Folks will love the 18Z GEFS as it is one of the coldest runs yet for the country as a whole (and for the Midwest especially) due to several Arctic highs and it also suggests Miller A action along the SE fringe of the cold from one or more lows moving from the GOM to off the SE coast. Verbatim, it shows a good sized threat for SN for a good portion of TN/NC but we know how this song and dance has gone. Hopefully, there won't be a NW trend/stronger than modeled SER to cause any storm to track well inland and thus mean mainly rain for NC/TN but we know quite well that would be quite possible. This doesn't mean areas further south couldn't also cash in because this is a nice setup in general from this far out, but obviously it would be more difficult as that isn't showing on the mean verbatim.
Remember that the 11-15 day GEFS has had a strong cold bias of some 7-8 degrees in much of the SE for many weeks averaged out. Take away 7-8 degrees and you'd have slightly warmer than normal SE. So hopefully things change this time.
Remember that the 11-15 day GEFS has had a strong cold bias of some 7-8 degrees in much of the SE for many weeks averaged out. Take away 7-8 degrees and you'd have slightly warmer than normal SE. So hopefully things change this time.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I don't think the stereotypical biases here really apply at least at that range when what's actually forcing this pattern is completely different than we've seen the last several weeks and the most favorable one we've seen since the huge PV lobe crashed into the Lakes last month.
Isn’t this what JB said would happen lol @Rain Cold ?
This would completely crash the PV lobe into the US/major displacement, this is a Miller A/southern Slider pattern right here, I don’t think the gefs is to cold with this kind of look this time, question is will it hold
