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Pattern Marvelous March

Webberweather53 said:
Beautiful -EPO is showing up on most guidance beginning next week esp this afternoon's ECMWF run, really can't be too upset with a pattern like this.

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A feature like this would also provide some confluence for locking in a high, although I do see what looks to be our friend, the Lakes Low, showing up....but it's not always a bad thing:

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Rain Cold said:
A feature like this would also provide some confluence for locking in a high, although I do see what looks to be our friend, the Lakes Low, showing up....but it's not always a bad thing:

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Right because there are cases (like the awesome Jan 20 2009 storm) where having a Lakes low doesn't mean it can't be cold enough to snow, it's also important to know the evolutionary stage of said low because a very strong, low undergoing occlusion will actually aid in cold air advection well to its southeast where a warm conveyor belt is typically located
 
For the first time in a while, I'm feeling good about first week in March. At some point in winter, a legitimate storm will happen for the deep southeast and I believe with current strong signals it could happen around March 2/3/4 time frame.
 
Many folks will probably not like the 12Z EPS for Mar 1-3 since those days are warmer than the prior run though 3/4 is colder.

Edit: The SE is still on the edge of the battle zone between cold to our NW and warmth near us and to our SE thus meaning a wet setup with a Gulf low or two likely in the pic. But we need the cold to push more and make it cold enough for wintry for more than mainly just TN and WNC or else it is liable to mean mainly just lots of cold rain for places like ATL, Birm, and GSP.
 
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Pardon the brevity ... on a break ...

This is a positive sign (SER gets shunted) ...

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh72-72.gifecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh240-240.gif

This looks OK ... not much red except in someone's back yard ...

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short term though, this is a "no like" ...

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PNA and NAO are both also disheartening for a while ...

We'll see; sorry for the lack of analysis, but the bell is ringing again in 5 ...
 
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ForsythSnow said:
Only if they show up in the ensembles or several days of runs. I'll only believe it if it's falling.
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Needs to show up in both for several days of runs and inside 5 days. Don't forget how the ensembles were showing fantasy storms, too.
 
This is by hour 240... , nice -EPO, weak -NAO/-AO, weak +PNA, pv lobe displaced but I would want it little more further south, still decent looking pattern here, models will probably begin to show some type of storm around this time soon 9BA4EC5B-7D23-4CC7-AE1A-3E7217925889.jpeg
 
Euro has just about every block you need ... and only day 8 ... seeming how the euro is consistent and has seen the warm pattern so well .. I’m assuming it knows the cold pattern too... I bet it shows a storm at the end of the run .... feast your eyes... +PNA/ -NAO/ -AO/ -EPO .... this is just screaming east coast fun
 

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GaWx said:
Fwiw, feast your eyes on this 0Z Euro 240 hour map, folks: yes, that's a 1055 mb high!

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I may be wrong and probably will, but I’m getting a feeling there will probably be a winter storm somewhere in the southeast around this timeframe, lol I sound dumb
 
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