Already mentioned on the other board but there is some ensemble support for warning criteria in Greensboro/Raleigh. Plenty to watch. Hope I’m wrong and it includes areas further south but I don’t see it in March.
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Hmmm, remember when I said something is gonna pop up, no I’ll stop, prolly gonna be 0 ensemble support and nc/sc bakes in the 50s/60s in this frame
Just more of your average -EPO dominated pattern here, loosing ridging around Greenland, can see the north jog with the PV lobe since we lost blocking, still got a strong -EPO/ weak +PNA, we can still work with that
12z GEFS: Strongest (along with coldest) signal for Miller A ~3/2-3 of any GEFS yet. I mean this one suggests threat not just to NC. But is it teasing us again?
@pcbjr don't completely ignore this period. Chances down that far always quite low and still low even now but this is the kind of setup that CAN do an extremely rare something even down as far as you IF everything falls into place. I'm certainly interested for my area even knowing chances small here, too. The main thing to wonder about is whether the GEFS cold bias means these maps are too cold. If so, forget about it. We need for a decent lobe of that cold air to actually make it into the SE as opposed to just skirting us to the north. And then, of course, a low with a well south in GOM location that then tracks across preferably south FL for you (need central or S FL crossing for here up to
@Stormsfury in CHS).
@pcbjr don't completely ignore this period. Chances down that far always quite low and still low even now but this is the kind of setup that CAN do an extremely rare something even down as far as you IF everything falls into place. I'm certainly interested for my area even knowing chances small here, too. The main thing to wonder about is whether the GEFS cold bias means these maps are too cold. If so, forget about it. We need for a decent lobe of that cold air to actually make it into the SE as opposed to just skirting us to the north. And then, of course, a low with a well south in GOM location that then tracks across preferably south FL for you (need central or S FL crossing for here up to
@Stormsfury in CHS).
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm liking this trend towards a stronger +PNA. That'll be the only thing that could get us a storm at this point. The EPS is coming around but at least they both kill the SER.
How about one member showing Phil some love...
Details (summation below): Here's the GFS ensemble mean at 264: To go along with GaWx's precip map above, this image is about at the period of maximum pressing southward of the PV. You see the omega block still in place out west with the STJ undercutting. Given the agreement between model suites of the AK block and resulting downstream trough, I would guess that the typical cold bias may be less of an issue here. You can also see a 1037 (member average) high is dropping into the Plains. There should be some decent snow pack to the north, which will hopefully aid any cold air transport.
The shaded region indicates an area where I would wager that a wave of low pressure has developed or is developing. Given the nature of the split flow, a phasing scenario is possible. But those are details that are impossible to determine at 10-11 days. There is broad ensemble support (as you can see in metwannabe's map above) for some wintry precipitation in the SE. The pattern appears to become somewhat more muted toward the end of the run. Could just be due to smoothing or could be that the pattern will transition to something else.
One thing seems to be clear, we won't be getting a big -NAO block anytime soon. I guess we'll have to wait until spring for that. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few. In the meantime, things are still looking pretty good here.
Summation: Pattern good
The shaded region indicates an area where I would wager that a wave of low pressure has developed or is developing. Given the nature of the split flow, a phasing scenario is possible. But those are details that are impossible to determine at 10-11 days. There is broad ensemble support (as you can see in metwannabe's map above) for some wintry precipitation in the SE. The pattern appears to become somewhat more muted toward the end of the run. Could just be due to smoothing or could be that the pattern will transition to something else.
One thing seems to be clear, we won't be getting a big -NAO block anytime soon. I guess we'll have to wait until spring for that. Anyway, it will be interesting to see what the Euro shows in a few. In the meantime, things are still looking pretty good here.
Summation: Pattern good
Back from my self imposed exile...before I left I got trolled to death for saying the FV sucked and now it's generally accepted. Go figure.
Agree with metwannabe...pattern good.
GEFS v/s late winter snow pattern for RDU
Agree with metwannabe...pattern good.
GEFS v/s late winter snow pattern for RDU
This is not far off from when the December storm happened right ? I can’t seem to find any 5H maps from that storm but I know there was some type of split flow action going on, anyways I’m fine with a +NAO so everything in the southern stream can stay sheared
The Dec event was a good pattern, lot of check marks for NC snows.
Strong ridge west of Hudson Bay, strong Newfoundland low.
Not to start another debate about it, but it is interesting how many of the major SE snowstorms (and I'm including some historic ones like 2/1973, 3/1980, 3/1983, 1/1988, 3/1993) didn't have a -NAO either just before or during. Just saying it doesn't seem the least bit crucial to me based on the last 45 years at least.
+PNA/-EPO combo is been the way to go lately
Well we haven’t had -NAO winter since the very cold and snowy 2010 and 2011. So it’s not like we have been striking out with -NAO’s.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yeah I agree. I think that's what got people aboard thinking it could bring the best setup for snow. However, I remember Larry posting some stats about ATL and snow regarding NAOs and it didn't matter what level it was at it was pretty much even chances at getting snow. It makes sense too, since the PNA being positive is what sends the trough in the east down a majority of the time.
Example of why we need a +PNA, all a - PNA does is allow room for the SER to expand over here, exactly why the storm yesterday didn’t work
packfan98
Moderator
12z Euro is quite a bit colder than the 0z run. The 1057HP dropping through the Dakotas should give us a shot at something down the road.
packfan98
Moderator
