12z gefs is still decent, still we need quite a bit more ridging around Greenland for a stronger PV lobe displacement, PNA has looked more nuetral/weaker + with these past runs, need to stop that trend, this is a pattern we can still work with but it could be much better than this, this looks pretty similar to the EPS
@Rain Cold posted above
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Good post. Would definitely like to see the PNA ridge go up, but I think the STJ is a bit too active for it to happen. You can see the split very nicely out in the Pacific in the image you posted. The EPO will inject cold into the pattern. Good. The STJ is active. Good (this, IMO, offsets the PNA issue, given the progged pattern, simply because it means regular storm chances). The NAO is negative, but nowhere close to ideal. If we can firm that up in conjunction with the big EPO block, and if the EPO can stay in place, we'll be cooking with gas.
In my view, our opportunity for a real SE winter storm comes between 240 - 300 hours. Assuming the EPO block is real, high pressure will track across the northern tier. With a decent snow pack to our north, cold air should be able to be more easily transported into the area. Here is the GFS 288 H500 map. EPO doing work. STJ rocking. PV in SE Canada. You can see areas of high pressure rotating across the north. Now, they are transitory, given that there is no confluence for anchoring. But other stuff about the pattern aint too bad.
The threat begins to take shape in this time frame:
Down the line (not shown), we get a Miller B. Fits the pattern. Now, I don't expect the model to have this even remotely exact. But if the big EPO block verifies, this is the right time frame for a winter storm. And IF we can anchor that PV for more than a day or two (I'm looking at you -NAO), we'll have a bigger window and it will stay open longer.
Last night's, Euro is similar, but not as robust. Who knows how it will evolve after D10. We'll see what today's has in a few.
FWIW, the FV3 does have a big time Greenland block at the end. But we've seen that before. And the rest of the pattern looks wonky (and by wonky I mean weird and unfavorable).
Anyway, I favor the 10-13 day period for a winter storm for at least some portion of the SE. That doesn't mean we can't sneak something in sooner. It's just that the right confluence of variables converge during that time period, which gives me slightly more than low confidence.