I think Phil and SER have the right idea that despite the pattern looking very nice that we're still going to need pretty strong cold anomalies to penetrate far enough SE to allow it to be cold enough for wintry in much of the SE though obviously less would be needed the further north. Hopefully, there will be colder trends while holding into a moist enough flow at H5. That's always a fine line in the SE and the forces that have been in control mean we have to face the real possibility that it never gets nearly cold enough for anything widespread. We just don't know at this very early stage and have to hope for a true change in that regard. A much bigger likelihood obviously is that wintry is mainly restricted to northern SE states like NC/TN/AR. So, if it doesn't happen, no whining allowed. This is a preemptive attempt to prevent whining. 
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