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Pattern Marvelous March

Myfrotho704_ said:
Most of the time we in the upper SE score from a -EPO with a messy mix bag/Miller B, high pressure sliding in from Montana/ND than moves towards the NE then get a 50/50 low to setup up at/around Newfoundland and we get a classical CAD, I try to find H5 for these storms these past few years but I never seem to so idk about the PNA part
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If one wants a classic near boardwide SE major snowstorm (I don't mean just CAD areas getting IP/ZR), a +PNA has been prevalent. Also, for correlation to cold, +PNA has the highest correlation of any index. I've studied this and presented it in the past. I've also seen other studies. This is the case moreso deeper in the SE but I'm talking SE in general. Obviously it is going to be easier for NC/TN to sneak in something in with a -EPO/-PNA than it would be in MS/AL/GA/FL/SC.
 
GaWx said:
If one wants a classic near boardwide SE major snowstorm (I don't mean just CAD areas getting IP/ZR), a +PNA has been prevalent. Also, for correlation to cold, +PNA has the highest correlation of any index. I've studied this and presented it in the past. I've also seen other studies. This is the case moreso deeper in the SE but I'm talking SE in general. Obviously it is going to be easier for NC/TN to sneak in something in with a -EPO/-PNA than it would be in MS/AL/GA/FL/SC.
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Even Phil has that tiny shot of something with a +PNA, even living here in NC I would rather have a +PNA, I agree
 
GaWx said:
If one wants a classic near boardwide SE major snowstorm (I don't mean just CAD areas getting IP/ZR), a +PNA has been prevalent. Also, for correlation to cold, +PNA has the highest correlation of any index. I've studied this and presented it in the past. I've also seen other studies. This is the case moreso deeper in the SE but I'm talking SE in general. Obviously it is going to be easier for NC/TN to sneak in something in with a -EPO/-PNA than it would be in MS/AL/GA/FL/SC.
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Did Feb 2014 hit places south of TN/NC? It was a big event for NC I remember and -PNA. Would rather have a +PNA but it can be done.

2014_02_12.gif
 
GaWx said:
If one wants a classic near boardwide SE major snowstorm (I don't mean just CAD areas getting IP/ZR), a +PNA has been prevalent. Also, for correlation to cold, +PNA has the highest correlation of any index. I've studied this and presented it in the past. I've also seen other studies. This is the case moreso deeper in the SE but I'm talking SE in general. Obviously it is going to be easier for NC/TN to sneak in something in with a -EPO/-PNA than it would be in MS/AL/GA/FL/SC.
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;)
 
KyloG said:
Did Feb 2014 hit places south of TN/NC? It was a big event for NC I remember and -PNA. Would rather have a +PNA but it can be done.

View attachment 16266
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Feb 2014 was an extremely deep CAD event, with areas like Macon and Columbus, GA getting ZR, the dome was so deep and cold that Columbia,SC was largely IP instead of ZR as many feared and up to 10” of snow fell in Mecklenburg Co and the Charlotte metro before a changeover to sleet occurred. Amazing storm.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Feb 2014 was an extremely deep CAD event, with areas like Macon and Columbus, GA getting ZR, the dome was so deep and cold that Columbia,SC was largely IP instead of ZR as many feared and up to 10” of snow fell in Mecklenburg Co and the Charlotte metro before a changeover to sleet occurred. Amazing storm.
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One of the best in my life, got a foot, what was the high strength with that one ?
 
Significant SE mainly SN/IP storms since 1970 include:

+PNA (+0.25+ just before and during) since 1970: Mar 1980, Mar 1983, Jan 1987, Jan 1988, Jan 1992, Jan 2000, Jan 2002, Feb 2010, Jan 2014 (snowjam), Dec 2017, Jan 2018 (coastal), Dec 2018

-PNA (-0.25-): Feb 1979, Mar 2009, Dec 2010, Jan 2011, Feb 2014

I didn't list all and didn't list any neutral (between +0.25 and -0.25), which includes Mar 1993.

It is something like 2:1 +PNA to -PNA.

If I were to do the sig storms that were mainly in just the CAD areas with IP/ZR, I'd bet the stats would be much different,
 
12Z Euro once again has that coastal March 2 but it again isn't cold enough for wintry for the most part or maybe entirely. 850s clearly warmer than 0C and 2 M above 32. If you live in, say, RAH, and if you love cold rain, you'd love these maps.
So, no, I'm not going to ignore 2 M temps nor 850s.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro once again has that coastal March 2 but it again isn't cold enough for wintry for the most part or maybe entirely. 850s clearly warmer than 0C and 2 M above 32. If you live in, say, RAH, and if you love cold rain, you'd love these maps.
So, no, I'm not going to ignore 2 M temps nor 850s.
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Basically this winter summed up, missed opportunities
 
GAWX : Your preaching to choir on +PNA. I've said for years if I only get to choose one signal from all the TC to pick from. Give me a stout +PNA and Ill take my chances. Way more rather have a +PNA over a -NAO any day of the week. Of course prefer both, but What is happening in the NE Pacific has big implications to our wx in the SE for winter flavoring.
 
I mean just look at that storm track, too bad it's not Jan, Feb, marvelous Mar.....

ecmwf_slp_precip_nc_35.png
 
After looking at all of the 12Z model consensus including EPS, there's still no clearcut path to a 32 at ATL! Some runs get them there once or twice (barely in some cases) while others don't. So, it isn't at all far-fetched now to start considering the chance that ATL's last freeze will end up being an historically very early 1/31. I'm not predicting this yet and I hope it finally gets cold in all of the SE (not just CAD regions), but it is now realistic to think they may not get another freeze.
@SoutheastRidge where are you when we need you?
 
GaWx said:
After looking at all of the 12Z model consensus including EPS, there's still no clearcut path to a 32 at ATL! Some runs get them there once or twice (barely in some cases) while others don't. So, it isn't at all far-fetched now to start considering the chance that ATL's last freeze will end up being an historically very early 1/31. I'm not predicting this yet and I hope it finally gets cold in all of the SE (not just CAD regions), but it is now realistic to think they may not get another freeze.
@SoutheastRidge where are you when we need you?
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Don’t call for the SER this early, pulse t-storm microbursts need to wait until late May/June ?
 
GaWx said:
After looking at all of the 12Z model consensus including EPS, there's still no clearcut path to a 32 at ATL! Some runs get them there once or twice (barely in some cases) while others don't. So, it isn't at all far-fetched now to start considering the chance that ATL's last freeze will end up being an historically very early 1/31. I'm not predicting this yet and I hope it finally gets cold in all of the SE (not just CAD regions), but it is now realistic to think they may not get another freeze.
@SoutheastRidge where are you when we need you?
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Thanks for all you do but I think it’s about time to wave the white flag, storms are aplenty but just no cold. It’s just wasn’t meant to be this year.


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Looks like eps still has the coastal but shocker temps are marginal at best.... only a couple of members showing anything and only Tn/NC (and I mean only a couple), this is through D8-9. There are some other chances after that but I'm just tired of talking about 10 day plus storms
 
Here's the infamous 360 hr snow mean, I do wonder how late we have to get in the year before there is no snow showing on this map at that hour

eps_snow_m_se_61.png
 
SoutheastRidge said:
And people laughed at me back in January when I asked about the possibility ATL's last freeze occurring in January.
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Those people, including me, thought you were just trolling and I still think you were. But we're not laughing now! You may have the last laugh, @SoutheastRidge , thanks to the SER that you ironically moved away from!
 
GaWx said:
After looking at all of the 12Z model consensus including EPS, there's still no clearcut path to a 32 at ATL! Some runs get them there once or twice (barely in some cases) while others don't. So, it isn't at all far-fetched now to start considering the chance that ATL's last freeze will end up being an historically very early 1/31. I'm not predicting this yet and I hope it finally gets cold in all of the SE (not just CAD regions), but it is now realistic to think they may not get another freeze.
@SoutheastRidge where are you when we need you?
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I wonder how much of early last freezes has to do with the continued development inside the city increasing the heat island. Most areas just outside, and a few inside, have had a handful of freezes this month. Heck, I checked last year at my house and my last freeze was late April with a frost on May 1st. Just makes me wonder if perhaps new thermometer locations would change the perception in some areas such as this.
 
EmersonGA said:
I wonder how much of early last freezes has to do with the continued development inside the city increasing the heat island. Most areas just outside, and a few inside, have had a handful of freezes this month. Heck, I checked last year at my house and my last freeze was late April with a frost on May 1st. Just makes me wonder if perhaps new thermometer locations would change the perception in some areas such as this.
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The airport heat island on radiational cooling nights is a factor (there were freezes everywhere else in the ATL area Feb 1, 2 and 14) but when comparing to the airport's climo, a last 32 on Jan 31 would still be amazing. I mean no advective freeze, which isn't typically accompanied by an airport heat bubble since enough wind prevents that, after Jan 31 would still be amazingly nuts. And looking elsewhere in the ATL metro, we're at Feb 14th for the last freeze. IF that were to hold, even that likely would be a new record early last 32 at those nonairport locations though I'm not sure.
 
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GaWx said:
The airport heat island on radiational cooling nights is a factor (there were freezes everywhere else in the ATL area Feb 1, 2 and 14) but when comparing to the airport's climo, a last 32 on Jan 31 would still be amazing. I mean no advective freeze, which isn't typically accompanied by an airport heat bubble since enough wind prevents that, after Jan 31 would still be amazingly nuts. And looking elsewhere in the ATL metro, we're at Feb 14th for the last freeze. IF that were to hold, even that likely would be a new record early last 32 at those nonairport locations though I'm not sure.
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We talk about this every year but it won’t hold. We will have a freeze in March and maybe even April.


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Now the fact that we’ve gone through an entire winter without a flurry ITP is a first for the 7 years I’ve lived here.


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