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MIRACLE MARCH COME ON LETS CHANGE IT ??
ATLwxfan
Member
UMMM ... GUYS... only 192 hours out???
I think most of us have had enough rain.
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The storm around a week from now does have some support from the gefs but it’s warm, maybe we will see the CAD get stronger the next few runs, by the trends it’s headed towards a miller B lol 
We need stronger confluence around this timeframe if we want a classical CAD, in this map it’s not that bad but it’s not in the best area so that HP would slowly slide out of the NE to sea 
Euro will be telling
Idk whether to put this in the learning thread but reason the gfs showed a storm this time next week is becuase of this classic look, 50/50 low near Newfoundland, lobe near the GLs, western ridge spike, trough going negative tilt creating cyclogenesis off the Carolinas, only problem is that weak HP in the NE, it’s only 1025 mb, otherwise this is a good look if you live in NC for sure but will it last is my question 
Wow Euro so close.
This is getting more interesting by the second... things are heating up I expect some fun eps members tonight
Euro also may try for round two at the end of the run... it’s goong for glory ..
Does anyone got the euro precip map ?!? 
Honestly look like we should have wintry wx in Carolinas.
Euro vs gfs at this time frame, I’d want something in between
I assume you realize that it is too warm for wintry. That is just a chilly rain with high 30's to low 40s. RDU is near 40.
Nope I didn’t, I can’t see sfc temps on tidbits, only 850s and if cold enough it would be able to support snow in the mountains, foothills and northern piedmont but I guess it’s to warm at the sfc, still I like the track of this low and the chance of some sort of CAD atm
1. All precip is with 850s above 0C:
2. Also, the 2 meter freeze line is way up in VA per this:
those colder 850s that were prevalent at hour 192 scour out by hour 198, welp #fail, front end pinger ?
Yeah, I suppose maybe some front end sleet mixed in but with temps well over 32 though the Euro has precip type as just rain.
If that’s the case then just bring on the summertime storms, tired of these good storms tracks Wasted due to no cold air
6z Gfs and 6z Fv3 says storm for south In 8-10 days.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
I'm not suggesting it won't happen (I've learned how useless it is to speak in absolutes in regards to the wx); but in regards to the FV 3, I find it interesting that it has a sleet/freezing rain to snow solution for here. It almost never works out that way. It's almost always the other way around: snow to sleet to freezing rain and then rain.
Just something interesting to my eyes. At any rate, there's enough noise on the modeling that this has my interest for now.
Just something interesting to my eyes. At any rate, there's enough noise on the modeling that this has my interest for now.
Snowman63
Member
Yea, looks like the EURO is onboard as well. At least for parts of the mid-south.
Six Mile Wx
Member
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Very nice runs overnight. Loved that GFS run. Two decent hits here and inside 7 to 9 days. There is definitely a storm signal for a week from now. This is the most noise we have seen on all the models at the same time since the December storm. This looks like a legit threat.
Maybe it’s the storms the Fv3 sees that the other models see as well are the ones the Fv3 does well with ... let’s find out
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
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Remeber the magic numbers, 8-10 days. Come back less than 5 and I'll be happy.
WXinCanton
Member
8 to 10 days is pie in the sky.
ATLwxfan
Member
As much as I am hopeful, the reality is that it’s just not going to be cold enough for snow for most of us. Atlanta is not close to freezing through out the 06z GFS.
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Not saying you are wrong because the odds are with you but living and dying by anything the GFS says is not solid thinking. The GFS has been absolute garbage like I have never seen.
At least the FV3 will be replacing the GFS soon so thats something to be excited about !
Is it? I'm not sure how the FV3's done with exact scores, but it seems like it has not been any better than the GFS
Old news from 6Z GFS: Interesting back to back very far southing tracking lows 3/4 (south-central FL formation) and 3/6 (south FL crossing from GOM) fairly close calls coastal SE but just a cold rain with temps upper 30s to low 40s. Still that's a whopping 25 colder than normal for afternoon temps at places like @pcbjr for 3/4 event and for myself and @Stormsfury for 3/6 event.
Very likely nothing like these will show up on next runs. So, looking at it as entertainment.
Very likely nothing like these will show up on next runs. So, looking at it as entertainment.
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Avalanche
Member
Will have to monitor its evolution, but nothing to be excited about just yet.
Nomanslandva
Member
ICON has a low near Cuba at 180 FTW! Right where we want it. But the cold is not that impressive.
FV3 has a little something
ATLwxfan
Member
You are absolutely right. The ensembles aren’t much more encouraging though.
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12z GFS hour 210 looks fairly similar to the 6Z. Let's see where the lows go on this run on the next days' panels and whether just cold enough anywhere there's precip. The Arctic high is once again in a position to just skim the SE,
snowlover91
Member
The main concern I have is the ensembles and GFS seem to be backing off the cold some, either delaying it or warming things up inside the 7-8 day range. It doesn't matter if we get a perfect track storm if we have no cold to work with, especially in early March.