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Pattern Marvelous March

Myfrotho704_ said:
Not much, probably gonna still be no precip but this is a little bit better
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Very small but you know what, it really doesn't take huge adjustments.... in fact light precip does make it to the OBX this go. At least it didn't have slight shifts in the other direction.
 
Here's all 3 GFS runs for today. I n c hi n g closer
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_20.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_19.png

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_18.png
 
FV looks the same, if not maybe worse
Edit* I take that back, mslp looks better so far
 
Idk if this is better or not, sure slightly lower heights in the northern plains/Midwest and more west PV lobe but looks like it presses lower heights over here aswell 42F6D8E2-B575-448D-AD43-36C3F4D5EB09.gif
 
CMC is improved a tiny bit but we still have a long ways to go. At this point it might just be model noise more than an actual favorable trend... hard to tell though let's see what the UK and Euro have to say.
 
The key to have much of a chance of sig precip. is getting WSW H5 flow over your area instead of drier W flow. So, as others have been hoping for, a backing up of the longwave trough to give that WSW flow. But, would it still be cold enough for wintry? Who knows? But at least some areas of especially inland NC might have a chance if they can get some precip.
 
snowlover91 said:
Yep that's a good point. Considering it was very light I didn't even bother looking at soundings to see what the moisture profile looks like. I only pull those out when there is something of substance to look at them for and so far there hasn't been in a few days for wave 2.
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Yeah any time there’s light snow behind a system or trailing behind a front it’s skeptical unless it’s within the front itself. But yeah, a sounding will be able to tell you if there’s moisture and usually it’s dry as a bone!


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ajr said:
I think it's probably more fair to have a nuanced take on this - a model will never be perfect, but it can give you a solution for how the weather can turn out... it's why you have professionals who still look at the data and results and make their own interpretations. There's an entire body of math dedicated to how you cannot feasibly predict the weather with 100% certainty.
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I was just joking but thanks haha
 
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Jon said:
Yeah any time there’s light snow behind a system or trailing behind a front it’s skeptical unless it’s within the front itself. But yeah, a sounding will be able to tell you if there’s moisture and usually it’s dry as a bone!


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Just like with that anafrontal fail band, sounding had the DGZ dry as a bone behind most of it and it was right, very deceiving lol
 
I really have found ensembles to be useless this year. I mean what are they really good for? You can see how many solutions are north vs south? Amp’d vs strung out? Cold vs hot? Ok. But what good are they when they change from run to run just like an operational model? I’ve been in the 5” snow mean inside 200hr 5 times this winter and I have an inch of sleet to show for it. Change my mind
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