• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Marvelous March

Webberweather53 said:
It's kind of hard to get a NW trend w/ our coastal when the longwave trough axis keeps speeding up. We really needed to go back to the runs from yesterday and trend the other way to have a shot, the opposite happened on this suite. I liked where we were potentially headed into the 12z models but we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back.

We can't do anything right this winter after the Dec storm.
Click to expand...

"...we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back."
Ironically, several cycles removed from this suite, we've definitely been going back in the right direction to seeing a storm during the middle of next week, the hill isn't as steep as it was yesterday afternoon but it's still pretty menacing.

Remember from one of my posts yesterday morning that the shortwave over the Lakes and Upper midwest needs to slow down &/or dig a little further southwestward towards the central Great Plains again causing height rises off the SE US coast to give us a chance for a storm here.

We still have a lot of work left to do, but if the base of this positively trough/vortex complex can slow down a little more and dig southwestward to about Iowa by 0z Wed, we'd be in good shape. The clock is ticking but we have 4 days left to get that look on the models, still plenty of time imho.
Webp.net-gifmaker (31).gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
"...we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back."
Ironically, several cycles removed from this suite, we've definitely been going back in the right direction to seeing a storm during the middle of next week, the hill isn't as steep as it was yesterday afternoon but it's still pretty menacing.

Remember from one of my posts yesterday morning that the shortwave over the Lakes and Upper midwest needs to slow down &/or dig a little further southwestward towards the central Great Plains again causing height rises off the SE US coast to give us a chance for a storm here.

We still have a lot of work left to do, but if the base of this positively trough/vortex complex can slow down a little more and dig southwestward to about Iowa by 0z Wed, we'd be in good shape. The clock is ticking but we have 4 days left to get that look on the models, still plenty of time imho.
View attachment 17060
Click to expand...
Just wanna say thanks for hanging with us man, great post.
 
Sleet City USA said:
Just wanna say thanks for hanging with us man, great post.
Click to expand...

The preceding changes attributable to the big storm that'll strike New England within the next 24 hours which suppressed and weakened the storm on Monday which will then interact less vigorously w/ the big vortex over SE Canada early next week is partly to blame for the last 3 runs of the EPS trending in a favorable direction for us. We need a lot more of where this came from to even have a sniff but we've taken significant strides in that direction. If we keep this pace going for another 4-5 more runs, then a winter storm will be a legitimate possibility the middle of next week. I'm not trying to be overoptimistic or positive, I'm just being pretty honest, cut, & dry. This threat still has a pulse as far as I'm concerned
 
Icymi icon took another better step with the 18z run, another west trend with the positively tilted longwave trough
CA680D54-E2D7-4B79-8A7E-025484B25995.gif
 
NC flizzard
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Gfs with the positive trend aswell, even has some light precip in NC, this just goes to show how these little changes with H5 mean so much to this storm, we’re getting out of that NW flow
View attachment 17065
Click to expand...
LOL we keep on ticking in the right direction, who knows what could happen
 
Longwave trough continues to slow down, lower heights/better troughing continues to push into the midwest/ northern Great Plains, i May sound like a robot repeating that but that’s a good thing since this is consistently trending better
AE04EBE4-B99F-4AAF-A291-31CA49FCA812.gifD0C7C125-15AE-476D-BD35-AA7AEDEEA9C3.gif
 
Because of the warm temps the past few days (highs hovering around 70*F and lows in the 50s/60s) and higher humidity levels, the leaf out is well underway here.

Too bad they will all die early next week (like last year). :(
 
Should we create a storm thread for this coastal so we don’t clutter the March thread with this storm lol, Idc if this fails, I just feel like I’m cluttering up this thread
 
  • Like
Reactions: ajr
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top