Very small but you know what, it really doesn't take huge adjustments.... in fact light precip does make it to the OBX this go. At least it didn't have slight shifts in the other direction.
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ATLwxfan
Member
Here's all 3 GFS runs for today. I n c hi n g closer
Meh but hmmm
FV looks the same, if not maybe worse
Edit* I take that back, mslp looks better so far
Edit* I take that back, mslp looks better so far
I'm feeling some deja vu and unfortunately I know how it ends
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Idk if this is better or not, sure slightly lower heights in the northern plains/Midwest and more west PV lobe but looks like it presses lower heights over here aswell 
snowlover91
Member
CMC is improved a tiny bit but we still have a long ways to go. At this point it might just be model noise more than an actual favorable trend... hard to tell though let's see what the UK and Euro have to say.
The key to have much of a chance of sig precip. is getting WSW H5 flow over your area instead of drier W flow. So, as others have been hoping for, a backing up of the longwave trough to give that WSW flow. But, would it still be cold enough for wintry? Who knows? But at least some areas of especially inland NC might have a chance if they can get some precip.
CMC trying but not good enough yet
Jon
Member
Yeah any time there’s light snow behind a system or trailing behind a front it’s skeptical unless it’s within the front itself. But yeah, a sounding will be able to tell you if there’s moisture and usually it’s dry as a bone!
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Thor
Member
You can certainly see the Higher heights that were jutting out from the MA are dissipating, but that may be a double edged sword with temps
Thor
Member
Weaker slp than the 0z run but still not a terrible location and certainly close enough at this lead time to keep me interested... hmmm
0z for comparison
Idgaf if it’s light or not, it’s snow ! Gefs still giving some kind of little hope
Improvement I believe.... don't write it off just yet. BUT I sure would love to see the Euro lean this way just a little today
I really have found ensembles to be useless this year. I mean what are they really good for? You can see how many solutions are north vs south? Amp’d vs strung out? Cold vs hot? Ok. But what good are they when they change from run to run just like an operational model? I’ve been in the 5” snow mean inside 200hr 5 times this winter and I have an inch of sleet to show for it. Change my mind
The term lackluster doesn't even do this justice. Really frustrating that we may be looking at 2 coastals in the same winter that don't trend NW in our favor when every other stinking winter storm trends NW 99% of the time.
snowlover91
Member
Through day 5 I'm counting 13 members that have a widespread light "dusting" of snow across NC. It's something I guess.
Remember it’s all about inside 72 hours ... let’s see how nam will trend it ... also at this point I am totally down to just see a coating hahaha
I said Sunday at 12z I want the trend.... that may be too late though
Yeah not much of a difference, maybe a tiny bit better ? I guess losing the higher pressure to the north of this coastal has helped out a tiny bit...
Snownut
Member
I believe the upstate can write off any winter weather next week and beyond. Just not enough blocking to keep the systems to the south. Without blocking winters around here will pretty much suck.
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Damn this is close
(Ensembles)
In my opinion just one tiny snowflake is a W, also if this thing can just have more strength to it it could be much better which is highly unlikely
(Ensembles)
In my opinion just one tiny snowflake is a W, also if this thing can just have more strength to it it could be much better which is highly unlikely
The 12Z Euro's H5 longwave trough is slightly west of its 0Z position and therefore may end up slightly better for NC with perhaps precip getting slightly closer to NC although temps are likely to be slightly warmer. Double edged sword. But to have any chance at all, you have to get the precip closer obviously. We'll see.
ajr
Member
Some things that are interesting to note, there's a lot less variance in the positioning of the LP of the west coast as well as the HP center over KS/OK. Makes you think that we're still a little ways away from figuring out exactly how this wave will track.
Also the GL low solutions went away.
Hour 96 looked worse (weaker low) but hour 120 looked better
What happened? The precip's NW edge ended up 25 miles closer to Cape Hatteras or about 50 miles SE. Temps warmed very slightly at 850 and 2M though 850s still sub -4C in most of NC.
25 miles a day by the time of verification and I'll be happy... thanks for the update. Still doable imo but a fine line we walk of course with temps
Welp the conclusion so far from 12z guidance is that things can still change but the question is how far can it go ?
You're welcome. Keep in mind the precip was 25 miles closer just since the run of 12 hours earlier, not vs 24 hours back as myfro is comparing to.
Yeah, idk why but TT compares the euro from 24 hours ago and you can’t change that ?
Gotcha.... lol ok slow down then, 50 miles a day and it'll be too far NW
Because they are 24 hr frames and it's comparing same validation time.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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We can do fine with a +PNA, that’s what has been missing this year, and how we have scored the last few years, with no blocking. Thread the needle
Snownut
Member
Right but who enjoys threading the needle when it comes to winter? We know that hardly ever works here.
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