Remember it’s all about inside 72 hours ... let’s see how nam will trend it ... also at this point I am totally down to just see a coating hahahaThe term lackluster doesn't even do this justice. Really frustrating that we may be looking at 2 coastals in the same winter that don't trend NW in our favor when every other stinking winter storm trends NW 99% of the time.
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The 12Z Euro's H5 longwave trough is slightly west of its 0Z position and therefore may end up slightly better for NC with perhaps precip getting slightly closer to NC although temps are likely to be slightly warmer. Double edged sword. But to have any chance at all, you have to get the precip closer obviously. We'll see.
Damn this is close
(Ensembles)
In my opinion just one tiny snowflake is a W, also if this thing can just have more strength to it it could be much better which is highly unlikely
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The 12Z Euro's H5 longwave trough is slightly west of its 0Z position and therefore may end up slightly better for NC with perhaps precip getting slightly closer to NC although temps are likely to be slightly warmer. Double edged sword. But to have any chance at all, you have to get the precip closer obviously. We'll see.
25 miles a day by the time of verification and I'll be happy... thanks for the update. Still doable imo but a fine line we walk of course with tempsWhat happened? The precip's NW edge ended up 25 miles closer to Cape Hatteras or about 50 miles SE. Temps warmed very slightly at 850 and 2M though 850s still sub -4C in most of NC.
25 miles a day by the time of verification and I'll be happy... thanks for the update. Still doable imo but a fine line we walk of course with temps
You're welcome. Keep in mind the precip was 25 miles closer just since the run of 12 hours earlier, not vs 24 hours back as myfro is comparing to.
Gotcha.... lol ok slow down then, 50 miles a day and it'll be too far NWYou're welcome. Keep in mind the precip was 25 miles closer just since the run of 12 hours earlier, not vs 24 hours back as myfro is comparing to.
Yeah, idk why but TT compares the euro from 24 hours ago and you can’t change that ?
We can do fine with a +PNA, that’s what has been missing this year, and how we have scored the last few years, with no blocking. Thread the needleI believe the upstate can write off any winter weather next week and beyond. Just not enough blocking to keep the systems to the south. Without blocking winters around here will pretty much suck.
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Right but who enjoys threading the needle when it comes to winter? We know that hardly ever works here.We can do fine with a +PNA, that’s what has been missing this year, and how we have scored the last few years, with no blocking. Thread the needle