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Good run for Boston. Playing a little late season climo catchup
I wish snowshoe wasn’t 7 hours away. I would go there next weekend 
Not hardly but I will say it felt good to know one thing you didn't lolI’m dumb ....???
20s and 30s showing up at the US Canada border towards the end of model runs now. Winter 2019 I hate to see you go but I love to watch you walk away
GEPS took a step in the right direction
Yeah with a handful of members just off the coast..... are we the only one's actually still following this? Lol
packfan98
Moderator
No, I'm following too. I just don't have much to add. When a system is suppressed to the SE and you are 100 hours out, you are still in the game. Good trends with the 12z suite with regards to the west extension of the PV in Canada. My guess is it could still miss us and the MA, but swipe Boston and Nantucket. That seems to happen once a year.
snowlover91
Member
Nah I'm still keeping an eye on it, waiting for the GEPS maps to load on Meteocentre with precip. They should be out in about 40-50 mins if they come out on time, that way we can see if any of those close tracks actually bring qpf inland or not.
snowlover91
Member
Here's the CMC ensemble meteogram for RDU.
weird, eps took a seemingly better step by slowing down the L/W trough yet the LP position/low itself this run look more like crap
snowlover91
Member
Perhaps with the slowing down it's not an apples to apples comparison? Maybe the LP just takes a little longer to get going and shows up better at 102 or 108 vs the previous run? Hard to tell with 24 hour panels but that's my guess on it.
olhausen
Member
I couldn’t agree with you more. I’d have so much snow if the ensembles came even close to verifying. And the gfs is also useless and so far behind the euro. After showing some good improvements for a few runs the 12z gfs of course came in with its worse run yet and completely caved to the euro again.
It would be nice if the longwave trough could dig more aswell to help out overrunning
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
The ensembles have been just as bad, if not worse, than the op runs this winter with showing snow that never happened.
snowlover91
Member
CMC ensembles hours 96 and 108, looks like a nice little improvement.
snowlover91
Member
I think the key with ensembles is they show a probability but not a guarantee of what can happen. They are also prone to being skewed one direction or another by a few big members. I find they are very useful inside 144 hours for snowfall threats and outside of that useful mainly for large-scale 5h changes/patterns but not snow. The OP runs have been pretty bad at days 6+ but solid inside the 5 day range.
That’s definitely not bad, gefs kinda similar aswell
snowlover91
Member
Yeah not bad and an improvement over the previous GEPS run.. baby steps I guess. We are going to need a considerable shift and heavier qpf to have much of a chance though, the few mm's of precip the GEPS and GEFS members have would likely be light rain/sprinkles or maybe flurries if saturation is good... and even then BL temps may be too warm for the first few mm's of precip... Still a ways to go. I'd like to see the energy moving through trend stronger as well.
Did the euro show something at the end of the run for NC? Looks interesting for overrunning potential
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
"...we have an extremely steep hill to climb to get a glimmer of hope back."
Ironically, several cycles removed from this suite, we've definitely been going back in the right direction to seeing a storm during the middle of next week, the hill isn't as steep as it was yesterday afternoon but it's still pretty menacing.
Remember from one of my posts yesterday morning that the shortwave over the Lakes and Upper midwest needs to slow down &/or dig a little further southwestward towards the central Great Plains again causing height rises off the SE US coast to give us a chance for a storm here.
We still have a lot of work left to do, but if the base of this positively trough/vortex complex can slow down a little more and dig southwestward to about Iowa by 0z Wed, we'd be in good shape. The clock is ticking but we have 4 days left to get that look on the models, still plenty of time imho.
Just wanna say thanks for hanging with us man, great post.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The preceding changes attributable to the big storm that'll strike New England within the next 24 hours which suppressed and weakened the storm on Monday which will then interact less vigorously w/ the big vortex over SE Canada early next week is partly to blame for the last 3 runs of the EPS trending in a favorable direction for us. We need a lot more of where this came from to even have a sniff but we've taken significant strides in that direction. If we keep this pace going for another 4-5 more runs, then a winter storm will be a legitimate possibility the middle of next week. I'm not trying to be overoptimistic or positive, I'm just being pretty honest, cut, & dry. This threat still has a pulse as far as I'm concerned
I seen that also.
Icymi icon took another better step with the 18z run, another west trend with the positively tilted longwave trough
NC flizzard
Happy hour is trying hard....
Gfs with the positive trend aswell, even has some light precip in NC, this just goes to show how these little changes with H5 mean so much to this storm, we’re getting out of that NW flow
LOL we keep on ticking in the right direction, who knows what could happen
This is the reason for precip breaking out in NC, stronger energy
snowlover91
Member
This is what I’ve been saying for awhile, getting better trends with a stronger chunk of energy could really help us out even without much improvement at 5h with the synoptic setup. Good trends to see!
Better gefs run !
(Sorry If this is a lot of clutter)
hour 90 and 96
(Sorry If this is a lot of clutter)
hour 90 and 96
Sure it’s light still but it’s definitely improving
We have seen massive changes inside day 4 with both tomorrows and Mondays system. Fast flow for you.
Now that I have jinxed it.
Great googly moogly we could even be looking at a dusting to an inch EVENT wow the trend is our friend
Longwave trough continues to slow down, lower heights/better troughing continues to push into the midwest/ northern Great Plains, i May sound like a robot repeating that but that’s a good thing since this is consistently trending better
Because of the warm temps the past few days (highs hovering around 70*F and lows in the 50s/60s) and higher humidity levels, the leaf out is well underway here.
Too bad they will all die early next week (like last year).
Too bad they will all die early next week (like last year).
Should we create a storm thread for this coastal so we don’t clutter the March thread with this storm lol, Idc if this fails, I just feel like I’m cluttering up this thread
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
What else is it cluttering