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Pattern Marvelous March

Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeh, just a few members but it’s interesting how some still show it..... although most are pretty light
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Yeah but they are improved over the 00z run a little bit... still a long ways to go on this one but if we can get a little luck on our side maybe we can see this one drop some token flakes... is that really too much to ask for?
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
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Agree on the thread names and we need to change up who is creating all these threads, we seem to have one person that wants to create all the threads...bad juju. I don't create threads either, I am worse than bad at bringing good luck.
 
KyloG said:
Agree on the thread names and we need to change up who is creating all these threads, we seem to have one person that wants to create all the threads...bad juju. I don't create threads either, I am worse than bad at bringing good luck.
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Hey, I was all for Flambé February and that's what it turned out to be at one point. I think we should think about better names that actually fit the month.
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeh, just a few members but it’s interesting how some still show it..... although most are pretty light
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As hopeful as I am for one last chance I think it won't come around. I'd take 13 as much as anyone but it's more likely for an offshore whiff I think.
 
Good morning everyone. Hope March brings us some wild weather, maybe not snowy types but strong storm/server and nice hail storms with some cold to follow.
 
Shawn said:
Darn, just woke up to a thunderstorm that wasn't quite forecast here.. and its raining pretty darn hard.. nice little line of storms/showers coming up from the South.

Wasn't modeled too well..... just saying...
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The question becomes what can a model predict anymore?
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
The question becomes what can a model predict anymore?
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I think it's probably more fair to have a nuanced take on this - a model will never be perfect, but it can give you a solution for how the weather can turn out... it's why you have professionals who still look at the data and results and make their own interpretations. There's an entire body of math dedicated to how you cannot feasibly predict the weather with 100% certainty.
 
Rain Cold said:
These PVs, troughs, and storms/storm tracks have trended all winter. I don't recall very much accuracy beyond 24 hours this year. This situation may, in fact, defy the seasonal trends and end up expertly modeled at 6 days, and the trough ends up as shown from 6 days and the storm develops as shown from 6 days and the storm tracks exactly as shown from 6 days, etc. But that certainly hasn't been the case much this year. Troughs and PVs and heights have almost always trended weaker/shallower/farther west all the way in. Maybe this one bucks, but IMO, it still bears watching closely.

Also, we may need to think about how we name monthly pattern threads next year. Fabulous February, Marvelous March, and so forth aren't getting the job done. We might need to go in a different direction with something like Delusional December, Jacked up January, February Failboat, March Mehness, etc.
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I campaigned for Flip Flopping February but nobody was having it
 
Maybe some minuscule shifts on GFS. At this point it seems nearly impossible
 
Rain Cold said:
Let's go ahead and get this out of the way:

GFS small changes no-go
FV3 still suppressed no-go
CMC terrible model no-go
Euro slight improvement with trough no-go

On to the 18Zs.
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That NE storm was a no-go all the way to 72 hours out. Going off that alone, I guess we still have an outside shot?
 
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