• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

Speaking of the 3km NAM, it has some insane SRH for the RDU area as the line approaches. If it bumps up temps into the 60s like other models have it could get a little rough.
1551453619468.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Are those supercells in the upstate ? Geez, you can already see the curly Qs on them
Click to expand...

The SRH and instability the 3km is depicting is sufficient for some pretty nasty weather. Looks like SBCAPE in the range of 1,000-1,500 and SRH 300-600 depending on the area. I haven't looked at it too closely yet but it definitely is concerning at a quick glance.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Are those supercells in the upstate ? Geez, you can already see the curly Qs on them
Click to expand...

I'm assuming with that track, they are right around the best shear etc. Not that they will actually fire out in front.. my local office is talking about clouds, but severe maybe with 850 winds.. Really just a wait and see for the warm front and to see the final track (that the icon even shunted further over towards the 00z GFS).
 
snowlover91 said:
Speaking of the 3km NAM, it has some insane SRH for the RDU area as the line approaches. If it bumps up temps into the 60s like other models have it could get a little rough.
View attachment 17025
Click to expand...
Shawn said:
There's some junk in front, but look @ these cells showing up on the 3KM NAM (12z):

View attachment 17026
Click to expand...
Shawn said:
Then a couple frames later, it goes:

View attachment 17028

View attachment 17029
Click to expand...

Haven't really paid this much attention, but this looks like it definitely needs to be watched from LA to NC. That is an impressive line of storms showing up.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Haven't really paid this much attention, but this looks like it definitely needs to be watched from LA to NC. That is an impressive line of storms showing up.
Click to expand...

Outside the tor threat being possible, I'm growing increasingly concerned about those stronger 850mb winds aloft mixing down/gusting to the surface. It can catch a lot of people off guard not expecting much. A few weeks ago, we had an event like that, and everyone on social media around here was like "omg is this a tornado? what is this? what is going on?". lol

Knocked my power out and did some damage around, and that was just pure wind in heavier showers.. not even sure we had thunder.
 
Euro held serve with warm front getting to about I-20 with high cape values. Morning convection/junk looks like the biggest possible caveat for severe.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Euro held serve with warm front getting to about I-20 with high cape values. Morning convection/junk looks like the biggest possible caveat for severe.
Click to expand...

We'd better hope that holds things down or else it could get really nasty. The 3km is showing SRH values of 300-700 along the boundary.
 
Lots of crapvection with this initially, maybe they can produce a few boundaries to aid but that’s a decent amount of crapvection which would develop CIN-convective inhibitation and May cause storms to struggle a bit later CF42AC73-0988-42D5-99DB-848FEB093893.pngthis is the best time right here for supercells to at least try to dominate before they become much more linear in nature, best instability/shear for them at this time based off the NAM 3km but there is limiting factors like poor lapse rates, lack of a elevated mixed layer/CAP combo which means convection will merge quick and try to grow into a line, and showers limiting instability out ahead of these storms a bit DEE287FF-BAED-4C27-9F2A-A15CA09FA44C.jpeg
 
Early start!EED0D010-B87E-46A4-985F-16264F4B1835.png
 
There was a cell that rolled this way tonight that was full of rotation.. it hit more stable air and started to fizzle before arriving though, but I am still scratching my head on how it never got TOR warned, but it was severe warned.

This next event coming up has better severe potential(at least a wind threat), imo, even if modeling is starting to slowly back off.
 
Shawn said:
There was a cell that rolled this way tonight that was full of rotation.. it hit more stable air and started to fizzle before arriving though, but I am still scratching my head on how it never got TOR warned, but it was severe warned.

This next event coming up has better severe potential(at least a wind threat), imo, even if modeling is starting to slowly back off.
Click to expand...
I believe it may have had a tornado touchdown and cause damange, per some of the post above.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top