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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

Gonna be a hard one to forecast. Does the rain and junk convection allow enough instability and if it does will we get convection to form when the shear vectors are favorable for discrete supercells.

With a very wet US southwest and a active STJ, I expect we will ask the same question time and time again as we lack both cap and EMLs this spring.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Down in Southern Miss!
View attachment 16962
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That’s one nasty sounding, 2000jkg of sfc CAPE, decent 0-6KM bulk shear, large hodo, moist layer that extends all the way up to 500 hPa, 350-400 of SRH, and good amounts of cape at the lower levels (3CAPE) along with steep low level lapse rates, mid level lapse rates are limiting but still that’s one ugly sounding, thing is tho there’s no capping
 
NAM has ATL getting to 54 on Saturday night, ICON has us near 46. Pretty big difference, which could impact things down the line.

ICON was warmer this run vs 18z though.
 
Overall trend of the night is showing the warm front not making it very far north. This would diminish the threat for many. Have to see what the Euro shows here in a few.
wf1.pngwf2.pngwf3.png
 
IM GOING WITH THE NAM IT SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ON TEMPS...

WAITING ON THE EURO NOW
 
KING EURO STILL HAS THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF MONTGOMERY .. IT DOES SEEM TO KEEP ATL AND SOME OF GA COOLER BUT AL AND MS ARE IN PLAY
9-km ECMWF USA Cities undefined undefined 66.png

9-km ECMWF USA Cities Georgia 2-m Temperature 66.png
 
Euro maybe diminished the threat a tick, but stayed fairly consistent with what is has been showing. Looks like we have the EURO/NAM vs. GFS/ICON/CMC. There is some pretty big differences among them, so hopefully tomorrow will clear things up. Will be interesting to see what the SPC shows for Day 3 in the morning.
 
Also: Seems like Euro has been increasing some junk convection each run and more of a wedge presence. Gets a little less ominous for severe each run, but definitely still showing a threat.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Euro maybe diminished the threat a tick, but stayed fairly consistent with what is has been showing. Looks like we have the EURO/NAM vs. GFS/ICON/CMC. There is some pretty big differences among them, so hopefully tomorrow will clear things up. Will be interesting to see what the SPC shows for Day 3 in the morning.
Click to expand...

YES IT WILL AND WE MUST WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 3Km NAM SHOWS
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Also: Seems like Euro has been increasing some junk convection each run and more of a wedge presence. Gets a little less ominous for severe each run, but definitely still showing a threat.
Click to expand...
Largely thanks to the bigger storm in New England on Friday, actually suppressing the flow out in front of Sunday's storm keeping it considerably weaker and knocking it back southward. I just hope we're not trending towards cold rain again :rolleyes:
 
NWS BMX AFD

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS, HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FLATTER SOLUTION. NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS THE LEAST
AGGRESSIVE WITH HARDLY ANY SURFACE LOW TO BE FOUND. CURRENTLY, THE
GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER, BUT IT MAY REPRESENT A
REALISTIC OUTCOME IF A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE LEADS TO DISRUPTIVE CONVECTION.

THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
OUR FORECAST WILL INDICATE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR I-20 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVELY COLD 500-300MB TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH CAPE EXTENDING UP TO THE 250MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND ALONG
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE AID OF AN APPROACHING
500MB SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENT 300 MB JET. STRONG WESTERLY 0-6 KM
SHEAR ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS ALONG A
CONVECTIVE AXIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
SSW, STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN
0-1 SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER FOR
AREAS BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AND BIRMINGHAM, BUT IS LIKELY THAT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
 
NAM still throwing out some PDS TOR soundings in Southern Alabama Sunday. The Euro and NAM have both been trending to the GFS though, will be interesting if there is a full cave today.
 
PEA_RIDGE said:
CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY ALA.View attachment 16963
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This is a saturated sounding, most likely contaminated by modeled convection. Point and click soundings such as this almost always "look" much worse than the actual environment would suggest. Without an EML or other capping mechanism, we will struggle to have true "loaded gun" looks this Spring, which leads to messy convection and a much more Ill defined forecast. Not going to sleep on this threat by any means...but this isn't a "sound the alarm" sounding.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Btw here’s a sounding from the upstate of SC, lacking instability but shear parameters and SRH is maxed (600 m2s2!?)with this look simple heavy rain showers could have gusty downdrafts and that hodo tho View attachment 16964
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Would be near impossible for tall, sustained updrafts in the environment depicted which precludes downward transport of upper level winds. This looks like a stratiform rain sounding to me.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Largely thanks to the bigger storm in New England on Friday, actually suppressing the flow out in front of Sunday's storm keeping it considerably weaker and knocking it back southward. I just hope we're not trending towards cold rain again :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

It sure seems to be trending that way and pushing the severe threat to the south of us... we can't do anything right around here, not even get a chance for severe lol.
 
So right now this looks like a squall line with maybe some embedded supercells, nam 12KM shows this and I agree with it
 
Just want to note that the thunderstorm that just woke me up was not modeled too well.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
You got 250-500jkg of MUcape and EL temps of -25 to -30 which is actually favorable for elevated thunderstorms
Click to expand...

Yeah, there's no CG or anything from what I can see.. just thought it was interesting the last discussion I had read was "probably no thunder, light rain" etc. 40% chance then bam.
 
ICON continues with the look of strong storms especially over NC as the low tracks up the boundary.
1551453372671.png
 
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