Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

[Snowflowxxl]

Indicates cellular movement imo

 

[Arcc]

Euro has some ridiculous CAPE values in south Alabama on Sunday.

The Euro is absolutely nasty across AL and GA. Moisture continues to increase with dew points 65-68 across the area and any less convection and that 2000+ cape gets north.

I'm gonna throw 3/15/2008 as my analog at this point.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

The Euro is absolutely nasty across AL and GA. Moisture continues to increase with dew points 65-68 across the area and any less convection and that 2000+ cape gets north.

I'm gonna throw 3/15/2008 as my analog at this point.

That was a nasty day..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That was a nasty day..
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I got near golf ball size hail that day, grandpa that passed away from cancer replaced almost all parts of his roof after those storms

 

[ForsythSnow]

That was a nasty day..
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I definitely want to forget that day. It was horrible and probably one of the few times I've seen quarter sized hail actually fall in addition to having 2 tornado warnings in an hour.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I got near golf ball size hail that day, grandpa that passed away from cancer replaced almost all parts of his roof after those storms

That was back when I lived near concord NC

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Let me guess, ICON looks pretty menacing with severe parameters

 

[snowlover91]

ICON looks quite menacing and has some sharp temp differentials in NC as well. This is definitely looking like a severe threat if things hold.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

ICON looks quite menacing and has some sharp temp differentials in NC as well. This is definitely looking like a severe threat if things hold.
View attachment 16830

Probably some high helicity along that wedge front

 

[snowlover91]

Probably some high helicity along that wedge front

That's what I was thinking too, I wouldn't be surprised if we see temps and dewpoints increase a little more too as this gets in range and if the SER trends a bit stronger.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Birmingham AFD

 

[Arcc]

Birmingham AFD
View attachment 16831

Matt about to bring the wood.

 

[proud dad]

Matt about to bring the wood.

Wish we could get him back with us.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

I personally wouldn't mind a little teeny wedge right along the blue ridge escarpment to enhance local baroclinicity and horizontal shear in the central-western piedmont. This is actually largely why there's a secondary local max in tornado track density over Charlotte and Winston-Salem w/ the main corridor being my old stomping grounds in Fayetteville and areas along/just east of I-95.

View attachment 16797

Im interested do you have this map for South Carolina Webb?

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah the ICON is bad looking.

 

[Arcc]

ICON definitely trending toward the Euro with the surface low over north AL at 18z Sunday.

 

[Webberweather53]

Im interested do you have this map for South Carolina Webb?

I don't have the same map for South Carolina on hand but the stripe of deep red would be generally along the I-20 corridor from Augusta to Columbia & Florence-Dillon +/- about 75 miles.

Probably some high helicity along that wedge front

CAD erosion severe setups like that are really good at producing tornadoes on the I-85 corridor from Charlotte to the Triad. You just have to erode it to the right degree, too little erosion and you're socked in w/ cold rain, too much and you get too far into the warm sector to benefit from the enhanced horizontal shear and helicity near the CAD boundary.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS continues the trend... think we have something here for MS/AL/GA

 

[Arcc]

EPS falling in line. About to go look through the members.

Edit: a lot of agreement within the members.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

ICON still looks nasty, NAM was also looked like it was setting up some juicy temps/dp's at the end of the run.