Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

[Arcc]

After Myfrotho704 posted last nights GFS my ears perked up, now the Euro and 6z GFS doubles down.

A large broad based trough forms over the central US by the weekend. Shear vectors scream supercells on both models with both showing good moisture feed and surface cape and probably will incease on the models due to the big bermuda ridge. Both models are also showing a stout EML building in.

This one may be a big problem.

 

[Arcc]

Sounding from north MS. Id like to see deeper moisture above 850mb, but that is nasty for the GFS at this range. Helicity is 200-300 even with SW winds at the surface.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Wow, just checked 12z GFS and it ramps up parameters. Here is a sounding for N Miss

 

[Arcc]

The 999mb low pressure over MO is textbook for a outbreak in the SE.

 

[Arcc]

Yeah, that is a problem.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, that is a problem.

Not to mention no wedge to be seen. Could cover more of the SE this time.

 

[DustinWx]

Not to mention no wedge to be seen. Could cover more of the SE this time.

The wedge will always appear.

 

[tennessee storm]

The wedge will always appear.

Wedge does look absent thus far

 

[Arcc]

The 12z Euro is much less organized with the trough than the GFS so the threat is much less.

 

[StoneMtnWx]

The 12z Euro is much less organized with the trough than the GFS so the threat is much less.

Yea looking at 5H the upper level low that ejects from the Pacific NW later this week phases with the PV lobe on the GFS. The 12 euro, FV3 and GGEM both look to miss the phase and shear out the energy as it ejects and tracks South of the diving PV lobe.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

18z GFS was a little bit less impressed as well.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

 

[Snowflowxxl]

0z GFS continues to show potential all across the southeast during this time period. Just will have to continue to monitor throughout the week.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Concerning sounding, large CAPE, steep low and mid level lapse rates, decent LLvL shear, lacking lower level moisture a bit tho, still this sounding supports strong winds and hail with mid level drying

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looking at that sounding again it’s not far off from Low precip supercells type look

 

[Arcc]

6z GFS would still support a threat, that said the 0z Euro was way too flat for anything.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Feels like the threat is diminishing each run, although for GA its been increasing. Seems to be centered around AL/GA

 

[Webberweather53]

Feels like the threat is diminishing each run

It’s turning into cold rain! What a surprise! We can’t even NW trend right!

 

[Arcc]

It’s turning into cold rain! What a surprise! We can’t even NW trend right!

Probably and y'all keep promising me a nice warm end of March and since I want that, it's cursed.