• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

Snowflowxxl said:
There is a bit of a wedge signature showing up, most models have it eventually going away as the event unfolds. We know they tend to over perform though so it will need to be watched. I'm off to bed, lots to watch next couple days.
Click to expand...
Yeah I'm seeing that in the newer model runs. If it keeps it up we definitely will avoid the worst of it up here.
 
12z NAM keeps most of NC in the cooler side of things with a sharp boundary dividing the state.. meanwhile areas in GA, SC, AL and MS are in the low 70s so it could be rough down that way.
1551366209479.png
 
WPC had noted that the Euro leads the way so far, and with that I give you the 12z GFS coming in hot:

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_14.png
 
Here's the next frame. Ruh roh. Of course, the euro will show the cellular structure better than the lower res GFS... but this is running into a very warm airmass imo. can only lead to problems.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_15.png
 
Regardless of shear/cape around the area in the midlevels, i can definitely see this being a potential strong wind threat for AL/GA/SC under the heavier showers. If some cells start going, :eek:

dasdas.png
 
snowlover91 said:
12z NAM keeps most of NC in the cooler side of things with a sharp boundary dividing the state.. meanwhile areas in GA, SC, AL and MS are in the low 70s so it could be rough down that way.
View attachment 16900
Click to expand...


That is the key to watch, does this event trend higher with instability like the last one did. Higher instability, some sort of cap and an decent EML is the only thing keeping this from a High risk IMO.
 
Arcc said:
That is the key to watch, does this event trend higher with instability like the last one did. Higher instability, some sort of cap and an decent EML is the only thing keeping this from a High risk IMO.
Click to expand...

What is this I hear about along the edge of a wedge, amplification of thunder storms in a setup like this? I'm not very good with severe, outside the basics... is it more prone to storm development, more shear, even with weaker severe ingredients?
 
Shawn said:
What is this I hear about along the edge of a wedge, amplification of thunder storms in a setup like this? I'm not very good with severe, outside the basics... is it more prone to storm development, more shear, even with weaker severe ingredients?
Click to expand...

In this setup, it's the warm front than really a wedge. But yes, the warm front can cause convection, but it also backs surface winds and increasing low level helicity.
 
Going to be interesting to see how entrenched the wedge turns out to be and how quickly the southern and eastern portions erode. Along the boundary, there could definitely be a few spin-ups. This situation certainly looks concerning and bears watching closely, especially with respect to the wedging extent. As we know, wedges are usually a bit more stubborn than models indicate, especially when they're reinforced with moderate precipitation. The low tracking up the Apps (which is a bit unusual) and the lack of a favorably located damming high to the north make me think that this could be one of those times where the wedge erodes more quickly. We'll see if models trend that way.
 
SPC day 4 has this at the moment.
day4prob.gif
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top