If a stronger EML verifies and we get a less junky warm sector, so much more area is affected.
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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
If a stronger EML verifies and we get a less junky warm sector, so much more area is affected.
This is the NAM) I’d say so far atm lapses are pretty limiting along with a skinny CAPE sounding, that hodo is similar to last setups tho and strong shear/SRH, also that’s a pretty moist column, drying doesn’t occur until your near 500mb, this screams low cloud bases, anyways even with limiting low level lapses, 3CAPE is decent 
18z NAM has over 1000 j/kg cape values over S central MS into C AL Sunday afternoon. 0-1km SRH over 250 m2/s2 over AL...
STP increasing Sunday afternoon from previous runs.
Also low level jet ramping up over AL/MS compared to 6z/12z valid 18z Sunday.
STP increasing Sunday afternoon from previous runs.
Also low level jet ramping up over AL/MS compared to 6z/12z valid 18z Sunday.
What has me worried is short range guidance is probably gonna perk up instability more since they can detect more mesoscale/local stuff and boundaries and have way better resolution than globals
This sounding is near Birmingham Sunday after noon. SRH over 400, you have to be kidding me. The 18z NAM is also showing a more substantial EML building into southern AL than before. If that continues with this type of low amp wave, it's just gonna get nasty.
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Three things that could stop an outbreak.
1: too much junk convection slows warm front progression and instability stays too low.
2: Lack of EML contributes to #1 and poos laspe rates. Strong shear tears apart updrafts until front with wind being main threat.
3: SSW surface winds limit convergence and delay cell initiation. This allows upper level winds become parallel with the front and we end up with a squall line on the front.
1: too much junk convection slows warm front progression and instability stays too low.
2: Lack of EML contributes to #1 and poos laspe rates. Strong shear tears apart updrafts until front with wind being main threat.
3: SSW surface winds limit convergence and delay cell initiation. This allows upper level winds become parallel with the front and we end up with a squall line on the front.
Likely.
Basically squall line..lol?
No, just a likely chance something prevents an outbreak.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Always does seem to be one thing that prevents everything from coming together for a system to reach its full potential. Most of the time it seem's a bunch of junk convection in the morning last longer than normal and doesn't allow for the atmosphere to destabilize. The warm front also doesn't make it as for north as the models had anticipated.
THIS IS ON MY ROOFTOP
Snowflowxxl
Member
Last two events that were big in GA were 3/19/18 and 4/5/17. Both times saw the warm front really struggle to make it above the city. I will probably be monitoring that the closest from here on out. The GFS and ICON keep ATL around 55 most of the day, which would mean low chances.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There also seems to be a proverbial wall for severe weather and especially tornadoes that literally hugs the Alabama-Georgia state line (minus a few exceptions), which is probably explained by the presence of the Apps. 95%+ of the time GA gets sloppy seconds from Alabama and typically those storms already grew upscale or evolved into linear slop.
Ron Burgundy
Member
NWS has ATL at 63 Sunday. I’m all for 55 though.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea Georgia isn't really known much for Tornado Outbreaks. We saw some with the 4/27/11 system, but nothing like Alabama.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist