Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

[Snowflowxxl]

Also: Seems like Euro has been increasing some junk convection each run and more of a wedge presence. Gets a little less ominous for severe each run, but definitely still showing a threat.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

Euro maybe diminished the threat a tick, but stayed fairly consistent with what is has been showing. Looks like we have the EURO/NAM vs. GFS/ICON/CMC. There is some pretty big differences among them, so hopefully tomorrow will clear things up. Will be interesting to see what the SPC shows for Day 3 in the morning.

YES IT WILL AND WE MUST WAIT TO SEE WHAT THE 3Km NAM SHOWS

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

06Z NAM

 

[Webberweather53]

Also: Seems like Euro has been increasing some junk convection each run and more of a wedge presence. Gets a little less ominous for severe each run, but definitely still showing a threat.

Largely thanks to the bigger storm in New England on Friday, actually suppressing the flow out in front of Sunday's storm keeping it considerably weaker and knocking it back southward. I just hope we're not trending towards cold rain again

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

AND THE 3km CONUS NAM

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Becoming less and less impressed

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

NWS BMX AFD

A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS A WARM
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. HOWEVER, THE ECMWF WHICH HAS
BEEN THE MOST BULLISH AND CONSISTENT FOR SEVERAL RUNS, HAS
TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY FLATTER SOLUTION. NAM AND SREF GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS THE ECMWF SOLUTION, WHILE THE GFS REMAINS THE LEAST
AGGRESSIVE WITH HARDLY ANY SURFACE LOW TO BE FOUND. CURRENTLY, THE
GFS SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER, BUT IT MAY REPRESENT A
REALISTIC OUTCOME IF A SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE LEADS TO DISRUPTIVE CONVECTION.

THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE WARM SECTOR REMAINS IN QUESTION, BUT
OUR FORECAST WILL INDICATE AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR I-20 ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
RELATIVELY COLD 500-300MB TEMPERATURES WILL SUPPORT SBCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-2000 J/KG WITH CAPE EXTENDING UP TO THE 250MB LEVEL. THIS
WILL FAVOR DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT AND ALONG
AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WARM SECTOR DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE AID OF AN APPROACHING
500MB SHORTWAVE AND DIFFLUENT 300 MB JET. STRONG WESTERLY 0-6 KM
SHEAR ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT SUGGESTS STORMS ALONG A
CONVECTIVE AXIS COULD TRANSITION INTO A MIX OF LINE SEGMENTS AND
SUPERCELLS. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
SSW, STRONG 0-1 KM SHEAR AND HODOGRAPH CURVATURE SHOULD RESULT IN
0-1 SRH OF 300-400 M2/S2 AND A THREAT FOR TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOWER FOR
AREAS BETWEEN MONTGOMERY AND BIRMINGHAM, BUT IS LIKELY THAT AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NAM still throwing out some PDS TOR soundings in Southern Alabama Sunday. The Euro and NAM have both been trending to the GFS though, will be interesting if there is a full cave today.

 

[Claycochaser]

CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY ALA.View attachment 16963

This is a saturated sounding, most likely contaminated by modeled convection. Point and click soundings such as this almost always "look" much worse than the actual environment would suggest. Without an EML or other capping mechanism, we will struggle to have true "loaded gun" looks this Spring, which leads to messy convection and a much more Ill defined forecast. Not going to sleep on this threat by any means...but this isn't a "sound the alarm" sounding.

 

[Claycochaser]

Btw here’s a sounding from the upstate of SC, lacking instability but shear parameters and SRH is maxed (600 m2s2!?)with this look simple heavy rain showers could have gusty downdrafts and that hodo tho View attachment 16964

Would be near impossible for tall, sustained updrafts in the environment depicted which precludes downward transport of upper level winds. This looks like a stratiform rain sounding to me.

 

[snowlover91]

Largely thanks to the bigger storm in New England on Friday, actually suppressing the flow out in front of Sunday's storm keeping it considerably weaker and knocking it back southward. I just hope we're not trending towards cold rain again

It sure seems to be trending that way and pushing the severe threat to the south of us... we can't do anything right around here, not even get a chance for severe lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

So right now this looks like a squall line with maybe some embedded supercells, nam 12KM shows this and I agree with it

 

[NoSnowATL]

Local Mets calling for 1-3in of rainfall with isolated strong to severe Sunday afternoon.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[snowlover91]

The 12km NAM has been consistently showing a pretty strong looking squall line on it's sim radar product.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

12z NAM holds firm with its idea of getting the warm front North to about I20ish.

 

[Shawn]

Just want to note that the thunderstorm that just woke me up was not modeled too well.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Just want to note that the thunderstorm that just woke me up was not modeled too well.

You got 250-500jkg of MUcape and EL temps of -25 to -30 which is actually favorable for elevated thunderstorms

 

[Shawn]

You got 250-500jkg of MUcape and EL temps of -25 to -30 which is actually favorable for elevated thunderstorms

Yeah, there's no CG or anything from what I can see.. just thought it was interesting the last discussion I had read was "probably no thunder, light rain" etc. 40% chance then bam.

 

[snowlover91]

ICON continues with the look of strong storms especially over NC as the low tracks up the boundary.

 

[snowlover91]

Yeah, there's no CG or anything from what I can see.. just thought it was interesting the last discussion I had read was "probably no thunder, light rain" etc. 40% chance then bam.

The 3km NAM showed some nice storms forming!