snowlover91
Member
Speaking of the 3km NAM, it has some insane SRH for the RDU area as the line approaches. If it bumps up temps into the 60s like other models have it could get a little rough.
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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Are those supercells in the upstate ? Geez, you can already see the curly Qs on them
snowlover91
Member
The SRH and instability the 3km is depicting is sufficient for some pretty nasty weather. Looks like SBCAPE in the range of 1,000-1,500 and SRH 300-600 depending on the area. I haven't looked at it too closely yet but it definitely is concerning at a quick glance.
I'm assuming with that track, they are right around the best shear etc. Not that they will actually fire out in front.. my local office is talking about clouds, but severe maybe with 850 winds.. Really just a wait and see for the warm front and to see the final track (that the icon even shunted further over towards the 00z GFS).
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Haven't really paid this much attention, but this looks like it definitely needs to be watched from LA to NC. That is an impressive line of storms showing up.
Outside the tor threat being possible, I'm growing increasingly concerned about those stronger 850mb winds aloft mixing down/gusting to the surface. It can catch a lot of people off guard not expecting much. A few weeks ago, we had an event like that, and everyone on social media around here was like "omg is this a tornado? what is this? what is going on?". lol
Knocked my power out and did some damage around, and that was just pure wind in heavier showers.. not even sure we had thunder.
Snowflowxxl
Member
GFS went way north with the warm front this run vs previous.
Snowflowxxl
Member
SREF probabilities of STP>1
Well, might as well get myself familiar with tracking severe wx. Some big time cells moving right over MBY in that last frame of the 3k NAM.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Euro held serve with warm front getting to about I-20 with high cape values. Morning convection/junk looks like the biggest possible caveat for severe.
snowlover91
Member
We'd better hope that holds things down or else it could get really nasty. The 3km is showing SRH values of 300-700 along the boundary.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
15z SREF upped the odds. I can keep putting these up if y'all want them, but if they clog the thread just let me know. I just like putting a lot of stuff in here so when I look back I can see how the storm potential progressed over time.
Well so much for this threat, lol.
Maybe I spoke too soon, lol.
Might have to batten down the hatches after all.
Lots of crapvection with this initially, maybe they can produce a few boundaries to aid but that’s a decent amount of crapvection which would develop CIN-convective inhibitation and May cause storms to struggle a bit later 
this is the best time right here for supercells to at least try to dominate before they become much more linear in nature, best instability/shear for them at this time based off the NAM 3km but there is limiting factors like poor lapse rates, lack of a elevated mixed layer/CAP combo which means convection will merge quick and try to grow into a line, and showers limiting instability out ahead of these storms a bit 
this is the best time right here for supercells to at least try to dominate before they become much more linear in nature, best instability/shear for them at this time based off the NAM 3km but there is limiting factors like poor lapse rates, lack of a elevated mixed layer/CAP combo which means convection will merge quick and try to grow into a line, and showers limiting instability out ahead of these storms a bit
Snowflowxxl
Member
SREF STP dropped a good bit at 21z. 18z Euro also was much weaker. Appears this one is slowly dissipating.
Yeah, probably due to crapvection right ?