Regardless, I will take more of my heavy rain and like it.
One thing's for sure, there will be mushrooms and Palmetto Bugs (*shivers*) galore come May.
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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Regardless, I will take more of my heavy rain and like it.
One thing's for sure, there will be mushrooms and Palmetto Bugs (*shivers*) galore come May.
Possible tornado last night in Abbeville County SC
https://www.wyff4.com/article/possible-tornado-touched-down-in-abbeville-county/26596816
https://www.wyff4.com/article/possible-tornado-touched-down-in-abbeville-county/26596816
Hmm, both WRFs have come in hot. Embedded supercells in the line and discrete supercells out front. Looks like where the cells ride the warm front is where the biggest threat is. Watch that location tomorrow if you are in Central AL/GA.
This will probably be, if at all, a MGM to MCN to CAE special. I agree with that posted above. Maybe an ENH type day 1 tomorrow.
gawxnative
Member
What we used to call a "Fall Line Express" Cells would run the "Fall Line" and be moving very quickly...
gawxnative
Member
Well Enhanced is out now in Day 2
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html
GSP mentions isolated tornadoes for my area and South tomorrow, in their AFD
Snowflowxxl
Member
SPC Day 2 is spot on IMO
Snowflowxxl
Member
Euro was north of the 0z run as well. The trend today has getting things a tick north of yesterday.
Snowflowxxl
Member
"An enhanced has been added along this corridor where a potential
for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
the squall-line to the west. The squall-line should progress
eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
during the late afternoon and early evening."
Stronger wording from the SPC
for strong tornadoes will exist. In addition to tornadoes, wind
damage and isolated large hail will also be possible with
supercells. A wind damage threat should also be concentrated along
the squall-line to the west. The squall-line should progress
eastward across the southern Gulf Coast States and into Georgia
during the late afternoon and early evening."
Stronger wording from the SPC
Again, this is when the best timing for supercells, between 19z-01z, you can also see the storms in the line and how they look broken up, probably gonna be some embedded Supercells in there aswell
this is a sounding In front of that supercell in GA, can see the moist layer from the sfc to right below 700 hPa, decent CAPE sounding but a little bit limited, notice the steeper lower level lapse rates and good amounts of 3CAPE, this enhances vertical stretching/updraft acceleration at least initially, mid level lapses are ok but somewhat kinda meh, decent hodo, storm motion wnw
this is a sounding In front of that supercell in GA, can see the moist layer from the sfc to right below 700 hPa, decent CAPE sounding but a little bit limited, notice the steeper lower level lapse rates and good amounts of 3CAPE, this enhances vertical stretching/updraft acceleration at least initially, mid level lapses are ok but somewhat kinda meh, decent hodo, storm motion wnw
Snowflowxxl
Member
Looks like one of those rare cases where central GA might get more of the stronger supercells
Snowflowxxl
Member
ATL AFD
Big story for the short term will be the severe risk on Sunday as low pressure tracks across the i20 corridor to the west and I85 to the east. Now the details of exactly how far north or south this low tracks will be crucial in determining how much of the area is impacted by sever storms. What we do know is that areas along and south of a Columbus to Macon line will see the best chances for severe storms including damaging winds and tornadoes. Models now showing close to 1200 J/KG of surface based CAPE possible in these areas which is troublesome. In most cases with such high helicity,the updrafts are not able to support the shear but in this case the balance may be about right unfortunately. SigTor values now in excess of 10 on the models which with even a conservative halfing of the values remains quite high. This would support more discrete activity transitioning from the squall line and the potential for a few stronger tornadoes. Certainly not a done deal as timing will be crucial but the chance is at least there to see enhanced activity. Although activity will be moving very quickly, could still get some isolated flash flooding across the area.
Big story for the short term will be the severe risk on Sunday as low pressure tracks across the i20 corridor to the west and I85 to the east. Now the details of exactly how far north or south this low tracks will be crucial in determining how much of the area is impacted by sever storms. What we do know is that areas along and south of a Columbus to Macon line will see the best chances for severe storms including damaging winds and tornadoes. Models now showing close to 1200 J/KG of surface based CAPE possible in these areas which is troublesome. In most cases with such high helicity,the updrafts are not able to support the shear but in this case the balance may be about right unfortunately. SigTor values now in excess of 10 on the models which with even a conservative halfing of the values remains quite high. This would support more discrete activity transitioning from the squall line and the potential for a few stronger tornadoes. Certainly not a done deal as timing will be crucial but the chance is at least there to see enhanced activity. Although activity will be moving very quickly, could still get some isolated flash flooding across the area.
MattMets
Member
Probably gonna need an eastward expansion of Enhanced and slight into SC. Maybe expand enhanced to the west some and add a small MDT for wind.
Snowflowxxl
Member
You can see discrete cells firing in the enhanced risk area on the 3K
Snowflowxxl
Member
Just got in the house, looks like the models have upped the risk during the runs tonight. Will be interesting to see how far north the threat gets.
Wouldn’t be surprised to see the ENH risk bigger and a MDT risk introduced.
NC could of had some severe weather if it wasent for the wedge.....
Snowflowxxl
Member
