Yesterday, confirmed 
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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
The HRR gets ATL damn near 70 degrees with DP in low 60s
I don't trust the HRRR very much, but noticing a slow uptick on the NAM also, a bit concerning.
Snowflowxxl
Member
New Day 1 Outlook, expansion of the Enhanced Risk
Snowflowxxl
Member
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL GA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered straight-line damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be
possible today across parts of the Southeast. A couple of these
tornadoes could be strong across parts of southern/eastern Alabama
into western Georgia, mainly this afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough will advance
quickly eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast today. A
south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to
around 40-55 kt across parts of the Southeast by this afternoon. A
weak surface low initially along the TX/LA border at the start of
the period will develop northeastward to the vicinity of eastern GA
and SC by this evening while gradually deepening.
...Southeast...
Low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the surface low from
southern LA/MS into parts of southern/central AL, northern FL, GA,
and SC today. A cold front attendant to this low will sweep
southeastward across this region through the period, and
thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by this
afternoon. Both low- and mid-level flow will strengthen as a 50-75
kt mid-level jet overspreads this region. Forecast effective bulk
shear of 40-50 kt will support organized updrafts across the warm
sector. Although low and mid-level lapse rates will likely remain
generally weak, some diurnal heating will occur ahead of the front,
and increasing low-level moisture characterized by low to mid 60s
dewpoints will likely support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak
heating. Localized areas across parts of southern/eastern AL into
western/central GA and the FL Panhandle may have MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg where surface heating and low-level moisture should both be
maximized.
The convection that will develop by early this afternoon along/just
ahead of the cold front will likely pose an isolated to scattered
damaging wind threat given strong low-level flow just off the
surface and generally linear mode. There is a conditional threat for
supercells to develop across the open warm sector ahead of the front
per some convection-allowing model guidance, mainly in parts of
southern/eastern AL into western GA this afternoon. If this scenario
were to occur, then a few tornadoes would be possible given the
strong shear associated with the previously mentioned low-level jet.
A couple of these tornadoes could be strong where the greatest
instability and shear are forecast to overlap, but much uncertainty
remains regarding a favorable supercell mode/development ahead of
the front. Storms will likely consolidate into a broken squall line
and sweep eastward across GA into western SC from late afternoon
into early evening, with mainly a damaging wind threat continuing. A
tornado or two would also remain possible with embedded circulations
within the line. Eventually instability is forecast to decrease with
eastward extent as diurnal cooling occurs and the surface low moves
off the NC Coast. Some lingering isolated wind threat may persist
late tonight across parts of the coastal Carolinas.
..Gleason/Karstens.. 03/03/2019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1158 PM CST Sat Mar 02 2019
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN AL INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL GA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered straight-line damaging winds and a few tornadoes will be
possible today across parts of the Southeast. A couple of these
tornadoes could be strong across parts of southern/eastern Alabama
into western Georgia, mainly this afternoon.
...Synopsis...
A low-amplitude southern-stream shortwave trough will advance
quickly eastward across the southern Plains and Southeast today. A
south-southwesterly low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to
around 40-55 kt across parts of the Southeast by this afternoon. A
weak surface low initially along the TX/LA border at the start of
the period will develop northeastward to the vicinity of eastern GA
and SC by this evening while gradually deepening.
...Southeast...
Low-level moisture return will occur ahead of the surface low from
southern LA/MS into parts of southern/central AL, northern FL, GA,
and SC today. A cold front attendant to this low will sweep
southeastward across this region through the period, and
thunderstorms are expected to form along the front by this
afternoon. Both low- and mid-level flow will strengthen as a 50-75
kt mid-level jet overspreads this region. Forecast effective bulk
shear of 40-50 kt will support organized updrafts across the warm
sector. Although low and mid-level lapse rates will likely remain
generally weak, some diurnal heating will occur ahead of the front,
and increasing low-level moisture characterized by low to mid 60s
dewpoints will likely support 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE through peak
heating. Localized areas across parts of southern/eastern AL into
western/central GA and the FL Panhandle may have MLCAPE up to 1500
J/kg where surface heating and low-level moisture should both be
maximized.
The convection that will develop by early this afternoon along/just
ahead of the cold front will likely pose an isolated to scattered
damaging wind threat given strong low-level flow just off the
surface and generally linear mode. There is a conditional threat for
supercells to develop across the open warm sector ahead of the front
per some convection-allowing model guidance, mainly in parts of
southern/eastern AL into western GA this afternoon. If this scenario
were to occur, then a few tornadoes would be possible given the
strong shear associated with the previously mentioned low-level jet.
A couple of these tornadoes could be strong where the greatest
instability and shear are forecast to overlap, but much uncertainty
remains regarding a favorable supercell mode/development ahead of
the front. Storms will likely consolidate into a broken squall line
and sweep eastward across GA into western SC from late afternoon
into early evening, with mainly a damaging wind threat continuing. A
tornado or two would also remain possible with embedded circulations
within the line. Eventually instability is forecast to decrease with
eastward extent as diurnal cooling occurs and the surface low moves
off the NC Coast. Some lingering isolated wind threat may persist
late tonight across parts of the coastal Carolinas.
..Gleason/Karstens.. 03/03/2019
RollTide18
Member
The 3km is freaking me out, very nasty set up
Fountainguy97
Member
I’m in Dothan, AL this morning. And Eufaula, AL early this afternoon.
Looks like a nasty linear line with some semi-discreet cells imbedded.
Tornado threat will be lower than the last event I believe. But still a legit day of severe
Looks like a nasty linear line with some semi-discreet cells imbedded.
Tornado threat will be lower than the last event I believe. But still a legit day of severe
Christopher
Member
I’m in Columbus, and was surprised to see the sun shining bright when I woke up this morning. I wasn’t expecting to see much break in the cloud cover at all today. Looks to be the same for most of the enhanced area as well.
Curious to see how/if this affects things this afternoon.
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Curious to see how/if this affects things this afternoon.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Fountainguy97
Member
I’m in Columbus, and was surprised to see the sun shining bright when I woke up this morning. I wasn’t expecting to see much break in the cloud cover at all today. Looks to be the same for most of the enhanced area as well.
Curious to see how/if this affects things this afternoon.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Keep an eye on temps. If you see areas rising above 75 then there is more sun energy than forecasted.
It sure is muggy here this morning.
First watch of the day coming soon.
NoSnowATL
Member
Already 60 here with the sun trying to pop out.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
We’re having peaks of sunshine with the clouds off and on here. It’s 59 right now.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Just woke up and the sun is peaking and it’s 60! Both weren’t suppose to be happening right now.
Last edited:
Warm front is on the move in GA, a few hours ago it was in the southern part of the state, now it’s in central GA.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Snowflowxxl
Member
Temp already 61. 3km NAM never had me above 60 today lol