Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat

[Snowflowxxl]

Yeah, probably due to crapvection right ?

Yea, they are all trending to the GFS

 

[Arcc]

SREF STP dropped a good bit at 21z. 18z Euro also was much weaker. Appears this one is slowly dissipating.

No EML, no decent threat.

That said, watch right along the gulf coast to a hundred miles inland. These areas typically are nailed in these no EML/cap setups.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

NAM showing a bigger threat for Alabama south of Birmingham, and the South ATL metro. Some impressive parameters

 

[JHS]

https://www.wspa.com/news/national-...ble-tornado-damage-in-abbeville-co/1821182810

Had this in Abbeville SC earlier tonight.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

https://www.wspa.com/news/national-...ble-tornado-damage-in-abbeville-co/1821182810

Had this in Abbeville SC earlier tonight.

There was a few frames with actual strong rotation with that one cell, interesting day, I saw STPs kinda decent on models but I wrote it off as the NWS said no severe storms likely, they were wrong Lol

 

[Tarheel1]

Early start!

 

[Shawn]

There was a cell that rolled this way tonight that was full of rotation.. it hit more stable air and started to fizzle before arriving though, but I am still scratching my head on how it never got TOR warned, but it was severe warned.

This next event coming up has better severe potential(at least a wind threat), imo, even if modeling is starting to slowly back off.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

There was a cell that rolled this way tonight that was full of rotation.. it hit more stable air and started to fizzle before arriving though, but I am still scratching my head on how it never got TOR warned, but it was severe warned.

This next event coming up has better severe potential(at least a wind threat), imo, even if modeling is starting to slowly back off.

I believe it may have had a tornado touchdown and cause damange, per some of the post above.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Euro is just a bunch of non-stop convective junk. GFS lead the way with the system for sure, complete domination of the "king"

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Euro is just a bunch of non-stop convective junk. GFS lead the way with the system for sure, complete domination of the "king"

euro just caved to the gfs for the winter storm in the NE lol

 

[Snowflowxxl]

From a line from about Montgomery-Macon still has a threat, I could see SPC going enhanced possibly there.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

New SPC Day 2.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

STP > 1 Probs

 

[Snowflowxxl]

The threat in GA&SC has been trending up IMO

 

[Snowflowxxl]

3K NAM indicating two rounds of storms for ATL

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Near Montgomery

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Off to bed, hopefully I have given everyone something to check out when they wake up in the morning. Montgomery--->Macon--->CAE

 

[Snowflowxxl]

GFS now gets ATL up to 67 degrees tomorrow, it was showing like 59 last night fwiw

 

[NorthDFWwx]

GFS now gets ATL up to 67 degrees tomorrow, it was showing like 59 last night fwiw

On the other hand, the 12z NAM was a notable step backwards.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

On the other hand, the 12z NAM was a notable step backwards.

Yea, the globals trended up and short range went back.