Wedge front lifts north in NC/SC/GA, ruh roh, ima check parameters
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Severe March 2-4 Severe weather Threat
- Thread starter Arcc
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
0z NAM still showing a nasty setup
RollTide18
Member
Yep been at least 2 years since southern AL has had a substantial threat, concern is growing.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Down in Southern Miss!
THAT COULD GET REAL UGLY
CENTRAL COOSA COUNTY ALA.
Gonna be a hard one to forecast. Does the rain and junk convection allow enough instability and if it does will we get convection to form when the shear vectors are favorable for discrete supercells.
With a very wet US southwest and a active STJ, I expect we will ask the same question time and time again as we lack both cap and EMLs this spring.
With a very wet US southwest and a active STJ, I expect we will ask the same question time and time again as we lack both cap and EMLs this spring.
That’s one nasty sounding, 2000jkg of sfc CAPE, decent 0-6KM bulk shear, large hodo, moist layer that extends all the way up to 500 hPa, 350-400 of SRH, and good amounts of cape at the lower levels (3CAPE) along with steep low level lapse rates, mid level lapse rates are limiting but still that’s one ugly sounding, thing is tho there’s no capping
Btw here’s a sounding from the upstate of SC, lacking instability but shear parameters and SRH is maxed (600 m2s2!?)with this look simple heavy rain showers could have gusty downdrafts and that hodo tho 
Snowflowxxl
Member
NAM has ATL getting to 54 on Saturday night, ICON has us near 46. Pretty big difference, which could impact things down the line.
ICON was warmer this run vs 18z though.
ICON was warmer this run vs 18z though.
Snowflowxxl
Member
The GFS doesn't even get the warm front above Montgomery. Still some big differences to sort out with the models.
Someone shoot the poor thing.
Even the wedge happy FV3 tracks it through NC along with the CMC. Interesting.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Overall trend of the night is showing the warm front not making it very far north. This would diminish the threat for many. Have to see what the Euro shows here in a few.
IM GOING WITH THE NAM IT SEEMS TO BE DOING BETTER WITH THE SHORT RANGE SOLUTIONS ON TEMPS...
WAITING ON THE EURO NOW
WAITING ON THE EURO NOW
KING EURO STILL HAS THE WARM FRONT WELL NORTH OF MONTGOMERY .. IT DOES SEEM TO KEEP ATL AND SOME OF GA COOLER BUT AL AND MS ARE IN PLAY
Snowflowxxl
Member
Euro maybe diminished the threat a tick, but stayed fairly consistent with what is has been showing. Looks like we have the EURO/NAM vs. GFS/ICON/CMC. There is some pretty big differences among them, so hopefully tomorrow will clear things up. Will be interesting to see what the SPC shows for Day 3 in the morning.