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March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

Myfrotho704_ said:
I doubt that extreme, but 4/14-4/16 2011 is a better match
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Hence the word, "SINCE".
But yeah, certainly not at the level of 4/27. As far as 4/15 goes for bama...that could have been a lot worse had we not had a stalled MCS over the northern half of the state. One of the concerning things with this threat are the similar dynamics with much more insolation over the free warm sector.
 
As of 230 PM EST Monday: Tuesday evening we start out with quasi-
zonal flow while a strong low pressure system deepens across the
Desert Southwest. Zonal flow will phase out late Tuesday night into
early Wednesday morning as a subtropical ridge across the eastern
United States and the strong low pressure system tracks into the
Southern Plains. This ridge should remain over the region into
Wednesday night while the cut-off low progresses eastward across the
Tennessee Valley. Rain chances will decrease from north to south
Tuesday evening as the cold front sinks southward. Tuesday night
into Wednesday we have the potential to remain wedged in due to a
high pressure system building into the CWA behind the departing
front. Forecast confidence on the wedge holding is moderate due warm
air advection riding over the wedge of cold air below. We will not
get a good scouring until the cold front passes through on Thursday.
The warm front associated with the low and located to our south will
gradually lift northward over the CWA Wednesday into early Thursday.
This will lead to gradual increase in rain chances from west to east
Wednesday morning into Wednesday night. This warm front will also
contribute to southerly flow aloft pulling in plentiful moisture
from the Gulf of Mexico. As a result the CWA should be in the warm
sector by Thursday. The cold front associated with the low pressure
system should start tracking into the western Carolinas and
northeastern GA by Thursday afternoon. This will lead to the highest
rain chances being late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon. It
is important to note that models are not in agreement regarding the
timing if the frontal passage. Currently the GFS has the front
progressing much quicker compared to the ECMWF. However, due to the
GFS runs over the past few days, I am more inclined to follow the
ECMWF regarding the timing of the FROPA, which would be Thursday
afternoon. Since the front would track through during the afternoon
hours during ample daytime heating, severe weather is possible. The
main potential impacts would be damaging winds and marginally severe
hail. The 0-1 km shear looks to peak around 18z at the critical
threshold of 40 knots. This means the timing of the front will
ultimately determine the severity of this event. The overall
tornado threat with this system looks to be low, but it is not
zero. If a tornado were to occur in this environment it would be
short lived. We will continue to monitor the progression of
this system in the coming days.

GSP's take on Thursday as of now.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah that’s a difference, I imagine once the evening LLJ picked up the tor threat could go up but those early storms could take advantage of those low level lapse rates
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I still wonder if with a decent amount of cape and divergence we get into a junk convection/congested type environment.
 
What’s the deal with the NAM lingering so much cape behind the Thursday AM line in the western Carolinas? Better forcing and then the actual front in the evening? Could there be a lingering severe threat behind the the main line?
 
Looks like nam has 2 rounds, a first line then more after F1FBCF54-C6B7-4B21-A336-904586BF8320.png273530BC-CD84-4178-9613-4F74FA89F4A4.png
Stuff with the line 085FB559-694D-4CBA-A3E6-5FEF152F9D46.pngstuff with the more scattered stuff after C10428AF-70D8-4D73-BA0D-DC96CFBF1B68.png
 
NAM at 18z looks to have backed off on severe parameters on Thursday for many areas. Much probably has to do with all the junk convection out ahead of the storm .. too many clouds were socked during all peak heating
 
424FA60C-264A-4E07-9FD4-A53ACB217D44.png
still a 2 STP value is nothing to scoff at .. it is simply not at a more dangerous level like the Past run with more widespread 4-5 values

maybe a slight risk with an enhanced further south
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I doubt that extreme, but 4/14-4/16 2011 is a better match
Click to expand...

My exact words to my coworker earlier as the radio host was comparing it to 4/27. This is no where close to 4/27, but definitely in the ball park synoptically to that outbreak. Got a bad feeling about this one, but not April 27 bad.
 
Gotta throw this out there... convection, boundaries.. etc... from Monday evening and Tuesday will all determine what happens with the big Wednesday system. Definitely some variables to consider...
 
georgia_fan22 said:
What’s the deal with the NAM lingering so much cape behind the Thursday AM line in the western Carolinas? Better forcing and then the actual front in the evening? Could there be a lingering severe threat behind the the main line?
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Possibly the QLCS "runs ahead" from the front itself by a large enough amount, that there is a decent degree of recovery before the front itself moves in.
 
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Arcc said:
My exact words to my coworker earlier as the radio host was comparing it to 4/27. This is no where close to 4/27, but definitely in the ball park synoptically to that outbreak. Got a bad feeling about this one, but not April 27 bad.
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Hard to overstate how insane 4.27 was. It’s once-in-a-generation for a reason, similar to the superstorm of ‘93.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
NAM at 18z looks to have backed off on severe parameters on Thursday for many areas. Much probably has to do with all the junk convection out ahead of the storm .. too many clouds were socked during all peak heating
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That's how it plays out most of the time around here and what ends up saving us.
 
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