March 18-19th Possible Severe Wx Outbreak

[SD]

Ready for the HRRR birdmandoncanedoomwedgepocalyspe

Very curious to see how it looks. I feel like the NAM may be doing NAM things

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Very curious to see how it looks. I feel like the NAM may be doing NAM things

This new version of the HRRR seems to be really good with storms it appears so far this year

 

[SD]

View attachment 79051View attachment 79054View attachment 79052View attachment 79053

Man I just can't get past the thought of a completely free warm sector getting filled with more shallow convection and cutting back on overall severe outbreak potential. Maybe I'm just mentally looking for ways to diminish the overall threat

 

[Arcc]

Man I just can't get past the thought of a completely free warm sector getting filled with more shallow convection and cutting back on overall severe outbreak potential. Maybe I'm just mentality looking for ways to diminish the overall threat

The interesting part is on both similar 500mb analogs, warm sector contamination was an issue to an extent.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a pretty classic pseudo warm front fueled by storm outflows

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like hrrr is getting meaner as the nighttime LLJ begins to ramp up

 

[NWMSGuy]

That several super cells moving over North MS/East AR?

 

[tempo47]

What kinda weather will central GA see from this?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Looks like there’s 2 lines on the NAM

 

[Jrips2710]

Giant hail in this probably near Gadsden, AL

 

[JHS]

Looks like there’s 2 lines on the NAM View attachment 79066View attachment 79068View attachment 79067View attachment 79069

Not sure the 1st one will be much west of 77, but that 2nd one still looks rough.

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

HERE IS A SOUNDING FROM MY BACKYARD


AND ONE JUST TO THE SW OF ME

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The second line has a hail look given its closer to the ULL

 

[Nicole Leath]

ex

Giant hail in this probably near Gadsden, ALView attachment 79070

It made an awful racket! I didn’t get to snap a picture but it was about an inch in diameter. First time in my life I’ve seen hail like that.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The second line has a hail look given its closer to the ULL View attachment 79075View attachment 79076View attachment 79077View attachment 79078

I forgot how fun severe weather is .. what’s happening to me

 

[PEA_RIDGE]

IS THIS A SIGN THAT MS AND AL ARE GOING TO GET "SHAFTED"??

 

[LukeBarrette]

With a cool layer of air on the surface, the result is elevated convection. Inflow from storms won't be from the surface but rather, from elevated air above the cold air. The result? Usually elevated storms pose the threat of hail and perhaps damaging winds if the storm is rigorous enough. Usually no tor threat as the storm is elevated, there isn't gonna be a meso close enough to the ground to produce.

On the topic of its effects on SBCAPE, I would say to disregard SBCAPE entirely in a setup where storms are elevated/ an inversion is in place. If a storm isn't drawing air from the surface, then using a CAPE measure that starts at the surface is not going to provide accurate insight on storm potential. MUCAPE is the way to go for elevated convection.

Good to see you on here Justin, I have been suspended on twitter for the longest time and I still don’t know why, (that’s why I’ve been gone). Hope everything is good over that way!

 

[Jrips2710]

Would be pretty surprised if the SPC doesn’t go moderate in the new Day 2 outlook coming out here in about 90 minutes. Everything I’ve seen today paints an ominous picture for portions of MS/AL and surrounding areas as well. Still lots of details to be ironed out though.

 

[Bham 99]

This is looking like the ole skip past Georgia type of event. Seen it many times. Arrive time and junk will save a lot of people around here.

19 out of 20 times, will skip over Georgia after hell was broke loose in Alabama.