The
GFS is more progressive with the cold
front and the severe
weather environment would not be able to fully solidify in that
case as the
GFS has a full
fropa between 18z Thurs - 00z Fri. This
would
likely keep any severe weather east of the I-77 Corridor,
but the
NAM and
ECMWF suggest a slower progression of the system
and allows for
diurnal heating and maximized
instability to
become more established ahead of the cold
front. In this case,
organized severe weather would
likely move across the area and would
produce damaging winds, large
hail, and possibly a short-lived
tornado. Due to the time discrepancies still in place with the
latest model trends, uncertainty in the severity of this event
still exists.
PWAT values ~1-1.25" and the convective nature of
this event, localized flooding will possibly become an additional
threat, especially in the stronger storms and SW facing slopes in
the mountains.
